2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

That’s pretty far south and impressive so being there instead of east of IC  MD , does that permit opportunity for a more easterly component to movement ?

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

So this should be to the OC/DC latitude around 12-6pm Friday?

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

Joe Bastardi makes a good point about this likely being warm core at least in the early stages since it would be forming over 82-83F water. He said it weakens as it moves toward the coast because that’s what a warm core storm would do as it gets into cooler SSTs.

[TriPol]

The new 00Z EC-AIFS has become more aggressive with the cyclone.

At F78, 06Z Saturday Sep. 26, it's down to about 989 mb. Compare that with the 18Z AIFS at roughly the same point, which was around 997 to 988 mb depending on the exact six-hour frame. More importantly, look at the position: the 00Z AIFS still has the center much farther west than the 00Z GFS, sitting roughly east of the Delmarva/NJ corridor rather than racing harmlessly toward the open Atlantic.

And look at the structure. The isobars are extremely tightly packed on the western and northwestern side, right toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. That's a very substantial pressure gradient between the cyclone and the 1026 mb high to the north.

The deepening sequence on this 00Z AIFS is also worth watching. We had approximately 999 mb at F54, and now 989 mb at F78. That's 10 mb in 24 hours, so this particular 24-hour interval is not bombogenesis. But the cyclone is already quite deep by Saturday morning, and what happens during the next 12 to 24 hours is the fascinating part.

[Windspeed]

FWIW, the GFS operational has brought back a CAG system in the midrange, lifting it into the GOM the past few runs. The 00z was more pronounced with a hurricane.

[wdrag]

GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. 

The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system.  This has been ongoing modeling for several days.

So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling.  Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. 

This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS).  Believe what you wish-

me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. 

I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.

[NorthHillsWx]

Appears as if Fay has come back from the dead

[WxWatcher007]

I need hurricanes at this point. Just one or two, but preferably three.  

[GaWx]

 There are two AOI in the Atlantic being monitored by the NHC, Invest 90L just off Africa and a possible regenerating Fay:
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest 
off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better 
defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has 
increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves 
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds 
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. 
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding 
is possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of 
Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development, this system could become a tropical depression again 
today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. 
The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of 
days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

———————

Edit: 12Z UKMET has Fay not only hanging around for at least 168 hrs but being its strongest at hour 168 as it slowly moves WSW!

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.2N  37.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2026    0  30.2N  37.7W     1015            27
    0000UTC 24.09.2026   12  29.8N  39.3W     1014            27
    1200UTC 24.09.2026   24  30.1N  41.0W     1015            29
    0000UTC 25.09.2026   36  30.5N  41.9W     1015            26
    1200UTC 25.09.2026   48  30.7N  42.7W     1014            28
    0000UTC 26.09.2026   60  30.6N  43.3W     1014            28
    1200UTC 26.09.2026   72  30.6N  43.9W     1013            29
    0000UTC 27.09.2026   84  30.5N  44.0W     1014            25
    1200UTC 27.09.2026   96  30.3N  43.7W     1013            28
    0000UTC 28.09.2026  108  29.5N  43.5W     1013            27
    1200UTC 28.09.2026  120  28.4N  43.7W     1012            28
    0000UTC 29.09.2026  132  27.4N  44.8W     1011            29
    1200UTC 29.09.2026  144  26.5N  46.4W     1009            31
    0000UTC 30.09.2026  156  25.7N  48.0W     1008            34
    1200UTC 30.09.2026  168  25.0N  49.2W     1004            39

[Tallis Rockwell]

Lamest Hurricane season ever.

I am ok with that given that last decade.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Lamest Hurricane season ever.

I am ok with that given that last decade.

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

Nothing wrong at all with a reprieve. 16-24 was brutal for the continental U.S. and this year has been bad for Hawaii.

[WxWatcher007]

Fay is officially back from the dead.

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has 
persisted during the day.  An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the 
system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets 
the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again.  
The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 
31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 
kt.  Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 
kt.
 
The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 
260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to 
the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion 
for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in 
line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm 
status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to
increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone 
gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical 
remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as 
suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global 
model.  The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with 
both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 30.1N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 29.9N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 29.9N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 29.9N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 29.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There are two AOI in the Atlantic being monitored by the NHC, Invest 90L just off Africa and a possible regenerating Fay:
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest 
off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better 
defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has 
increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves 
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds 
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. 
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding 
is possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of 
Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development, this system could become a tropical depression again 
today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. 
The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of 
days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

———————

Edit: 12Z UKMET has Fay not only hanging around for at least 168 hrs but being its strongest at hour 168 as it slowly moves WSW!

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.2N  37.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2026    0  30.2N  37.7W     1015            27
    0000UTC 24.09.2026   12  29.8N  39.3W     1014            27
    1200UTC 24.09.2026   24  30.1N  41.0W     1015            29
    0000UTC 25.09.2026   36  30.5N  41.9W     1015            26
    1200UTC 25.09.2026   48  30.7N  42.7W     1014            28
    0000UTC 26.09.2026   60  30.6N  43.3W     1014            28
    1200UTC 26.09.2026   72  30.6N  43.9W     1013            29
    0000UTC 27.09.2026   84  30.5N  44.0W     1014            25
    1200UTC 27.09.2026   96  30.3N  43.7W     1013            28
    0000UTC 28.09.2026  108  29.5N  43.5W     1013            27
    1200UTC 28.09.2026  120  28.4N  43.7W     1012            28
    0000UTC 29.09.2026  132  27.4N  44.8W     1011            29
    1200UTC 29.09.2026  144  26.5N  46.4W     1009            31
    0000UTC 30.09.2026  156  25.7N  48.0W     1008            34
    1200UTC 30.09.2026  168  25.0N  49.2W     1004            39

For 90L, it may become a TS briefly from what some models show.  It is quite rare to have something named this far E and moving NW and stay E of Cabo Verde.  Hermine in 2022 (35 kt) did  his.  Before 2022 and strongest in the last 60 years was an unnamed TS in Sep 1988 (50 kt) (see attachments). There were several min TS in the 1960s and early 1970s in the area.

[vortex95]

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought.

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at times for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I know of no cases where an ET low warm secluded and became a ST storm near the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Yes, the Perfect Storm in 1991 did this, and so did the Oct 2021 biggie (Wanda later), but those TCs formed way E out to sea after the local ET storm impacts had gone.  Not the same when you have ongoing ET low impacts on land, and then the low transitions to a ST storm and gets a name!

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on their 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance of ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it's not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic systems in the subtropical EPAC that have no chance of development and give it 0/0, and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought.
 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at time for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on the 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic areas in the subtropical EPAC  that have no chance of development and given it 0/0,  and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

 As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW.

 More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN!