2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

You can tell this hurricane season is a lost cause because half of wx Twitter is "X hurricane made landfall on this date 13 years ago"

Similar to winter  

[GaWx]

 The next named storm is Dolly.  
 
 Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced. 

[WxWatcher007]

95L is out of time. 

[MANDA]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

95L is out of time. 

Yep.  If we are going to add any ACE to August will have to come from 96L and that is struggling this morning.  

I'm still taking the under on the CSU 2026 seasonal ACE of 50.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The GFS is actual trash. The fact it only just now finally dropped this system after developing it as quick as it was just shows how bad it still is. It had this as a 996mb system today a few days ago lmao

[Windspeed]

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

[kgottwald]

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board. 

[cptcatz]

Shear is low and is forecasted to remain low on the area of the Bahamas, where the SSTs are also around record highs. If a system can get there, there's no reason why it can't blow up like Andrew or Dorian did in that area. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board. 

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Kind of crazy it's almost September and this is how the season has looked so far lol

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Kind of crazy it's almost September and this is how the season has looked so far lol

But not so crazy for a very strong Nino.

[GaWx]

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3.

 

@TheDreamTraveler

[TheDreamTraveler]

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But not so crazy for a very strong Nino.

Definitely. Though even 1997 and 2015 had much more activity by this point. 97 went on to be one of the quietest years on record but still it's impressive just how little activity there's been at all to this point

[vortex95]

On 8/25/2026 at 1:35 PM, cptcatz said:

Lol seriously. I don't need an hour by hour recap of what Andrew did 34 years ago on this day.

It's one reason why you can't rely on the wx for steady ratings or interest.  You think svr wx season will segue nicely into hurricane, and then into winter storm season (or should I say EAST COAST snowstorm season b/c that's all the seems to matter to the MSM for ratings!), but it isnot always going to cooperate, so you get all these anniversaries or past systems for filler even though they are not multiple of 5 years!

There is a lot TC activity going on in the NHEMI currently, but the Atlantic bias is obvious  Yet the Atlantic only accounts for about 15% of annual global TC accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).

We've been "spoiled" in the Atlantic since 1995 and eventually the AMO is going to flip for a quieter Atlantic.  When they will be?  Not clear.  Last active period before this one was 1926-1969.  Prior to that, the 1870s to about 1900.  So looking at 30-45 year cycle here?, but we only have two data points in the period of record, so that is far from telling us the extent of what happens for Atlantic TC cycles (up oe down), but we do have a solid idea the Atlantic TC activity does come in multi-decade cycles and know that it is the most variable TC basin in the world.

[vortex95]

On 8/25/2026 at 2:11 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Similar to winter  

Oh, and that far more apparent just on the forums in AmrWx, esp. on the New England group!  Never have I seen such EEYORE-type attitudes, even after the two blockbuster snowstorms in New England this past winter, and a rather cold winter to boot (snow cover stuck around a long time even in DCA/BWI).  But it had only been 4 yr since the last big snowstorm for the NEUS.  You'd think it was 40 years from the posts!   And then I have to keep telling so many, you have no idea how lousy it was for East Coast winters 1978-79 to 1991-92!  However, two New England direct hurricane strikes during that tperiod, so not all "the worst!"

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

Yep.  If we are going to add any ACE to August will have to come from 96L and that is struggling this morning.  

I'm still taking the under on the CSU 2026 seasonal ACE of 50.

1983 redux?  But that was the year after very strong El Nino.  1982 was very low ACE though (3rd lowest since 1946).

S-T-D, how does this rank historically, at least since the satellite era I wonder?  Only 3.1 ACE so far (~12% of avg).

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The GFS is actual trash. The fact it only just now finally dropped this system after developing it as quick as it was just shows how bad it still is. It had this as a 996mb system today a few days ago lmao

Well, at least we know nothing has changed for the GFS concerning TCs!  However, in this case, it was overdeveloping 95L not in the long-range (7+ days out)  I seem to recall it did better in the short-range.  I recall last year and the year before, when during the peak season, the MDR was shutdown big time from the SAL/dust/warm temps aloft/TUTTs and/or the ITCZ too far N, even then the GFS was not spinning up TCs.

One advantage the global models have is that they know the large-scale synoptic environment well, so if they are not doing much w/ a system, but the
short-range or TC models are, that's a red flag as the synoptic environment not favorable (this works best when a system is in its nascent stages).  But it seems the GFS can't acknowledge the El Nino-driven hostile conditions in the MDR?, which i odd b/c they are screaming at us w/ that "barrier" of high shear across the nrn part of the MDR.

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

Good info!  To quantify it in scale and time is of value.  When you look at things enough, like wx patterns for whatever phenomena, it does sink in and provide that met experience that can't taught or trained, you just have to keep doing it yourself repeatedly over time, and keep gathering/gleaning tidbits here and there, so you eventually really do get a "feel" for things subjective and objectivity!

And so far, the rule of thumb when it is very strong El Nino and the Atlantic hurricane season is suppressed still "works" and works well!  I know it not the best for TC enthusiasts, but at least it was not a surprise.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3.

 

@TheDreamTraveler

That's good historical info.  And to add in, given our standards and practices today, and much better detection/documentation.  It is highly likely Cristobal would have never been declared or gone completely undetected in those above mentioned years.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 8/25/2026 at 1:07 PM, olafminesaw said:

You can tell this hurricane season is a lost cause because half of wx Twitter is "X hurricane made landfall on this date 13 years ago"

Funny thing is that wouldn't be true because 13 years ago was 2013, which was a very quiet season. All storms that year were either TS or C1.

All of the notable hurricanes came during the active seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were 14-16 years ago.

[WxWatcher007]

The only caution flag is that we've had several seasons recently where the Atlantic was dead in August, only to come to life in September and October. Now, my forecast contemplates that and doesn't foresee some sort of structural change that makes the basin more favorable, but I highly doubt we end up with nothing. 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The only caution flag is that we've had several seasons recently where the Atlantic was dead in August, only to come to life in September and October. Now, my forecast contemplates that and doesn't foresee some sort of structural change that makes the basin more favorable, but I highly doubt we end up with nothing. 

I think the biggest difference is, during those recent dead August's, the primary limiting culprit was abnormally high SAL. That hasn't been an issue this year, yet the basin has remained so hostile in the upper levels that even strong waves with solid moisture envelopes have failed to develop. The cap got blown off in those previous seasons because SAL decreased heading into September. This year, there are no indications the shear will subside (but for windows as your forecast notes) and it won't be so much of a "back loaded" season more than a wave finding a small window during peak climo. Also, there is some science to back Nina seasons being more back-loaded than Nino seasons. With almost 0 activity to this point, just few storms might appear to make this look back loaded, but I seriously doubt we see the cap come off like in recent years with frequent high-end development through September or even beyond. With Nino strengthening, I actually could see an early end to the season as well. It only takes 1, and with water temp anomalies off the SE coast running about the highest in the basin, that is of concern, but it is going to take perfect timing and a thread the needle type event to get a system through to take advantage. The rest of the basin is likely cooked besides some low-end development, like 96L

[Windspeed]

Agree with everything that has been said and discussed. We're all essentially watching if something can slip through and under a favorable environment north of the Antilles and time just right with an ECONUS ridge. Essentially, Andrew. However, that takes a lot of luck (or bad luck for perspective). I really don't expect much out of the MDR other than some early developing TCs that end up getting ripped apart. Too many reforming walls of shear that probably aren't going to leave us through Autumn. Additionally, we still have to watch the GOM and the WCARIB for something that might pop up out of a gyre. Those can sometimes get lucky with a wave breaking event to the east. The GOM is boiling and will be primed well into late October.