2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ineedsnow]

11/4/2

[GaWx]

Watch the NE Gulf and vicinity for a possible TS next week per some model runs.

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

[GaWx]

On 5/27/2026 at 12:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

I posted a few days ago elsewhere that I thought the window would open around mid-June. We certainly do see models rushing the favorable window sometimes, especially early in the season. Hard to believe we’re almost near the official start of the season. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Current SSTA.. Atlantic tripole, which is a few NS less per year, on average. East-based Nino is also for a weaker season than central or west based. The one going for the season is continued -PDO

[WxWatcher007]

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201
 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png


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[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png


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Yeah, if there are breaks in shear in the homebrew region (a big if), homebrew is likely the best chance at tropical genesis.