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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread


Voyager
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1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

Don't issue grades. We've been told there's "plenty of winter left" despite all evidence to the contrary.

I saw the back n forth.  You guys can fight that out.  I'm merely stating my opinion.

To me, March is least favorite "winter" month.  Yeah it can snow, but its gotta be anomalous in a lot of ways for it to happen, and stick around long enough to enjoy.  Sure I'll take it if it comes, but I won't lose much sleep over it.  Its been a good enough winter that my season end depression is there but not as bad as a suck ass ratter.  I'm ready to stay busy and pass the time till we start chatting up what winter looks like in October.  I'll end by saying this past winter was FAR better than what most thought here in the east.  Thats why I love this sport, cause Mo Nature always holds the cards.  

 

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3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I have not gotten above 30 yet today.  Thick clouds. 

I'll verify that. It's much colder where I'm currently at in Elizabethtown than it was two hours ago in Lansdale where I dropped my last water load.

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21 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Did anyone else see this at the northern edge of the overcast cloud deck today? It's like someone took a straight edge, drew a line across the sky, and colored the bottom blue.

I saw it, but this is NOT my photo.

FB_IMG_1772497968428.jpg

I did see this today. I even mentioned to myself that it was one of the cleanest contrast differences I’ve seen.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, lots of “evidence” will be posted later this evening showing why the cold & potential snow chances could be coming back by mid month.

How about the “evidence” on the best ensemble in the world, the EPS from 12z today.

By March 14, the colder pattern is emerging & remains in place at the end of the run on day 15.

IMG_2250.png

IMG_2247.png

IMG_2248.png

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Latest discussion on today's freezing rain from nws. 

-- Highlight Changed Discussion

619
FXUS61 KCTP 030741
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
241 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures today into tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery
road conditions and travel/school delays early today

2) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through
the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week
with above-normal rainfall likely

3) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late
week into the second week of March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation
brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early
today

A low-level warm advection regime will sustain light wintry
precip as it continues to spread from southwest to northeast
across CPA this morning. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall
at the onset or on the front-end of precipitation as -2 to -6C
max wet bulb temps retreat to the northeast. Light/minor ice
accumulation from freezing rain of generally 0.10 of an inch or
less is likely across the bulk of Central PA with slightly
higher amounts possible - particularly on the southwest
Allegheny ridges. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark from
southwest to northeast through the afternoon into tonight
effectively transitioning ptypes to plain rain. Fog and low
stratus may be expansive overnight with lingering areas of
light rain and pockets of drizzle.

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These are the days that suck. Main roads probably wet. Side roads, parking lots, and our loading locations probably ice. Questionable conditions, but can't really call off/late because.....the main roads are wet.

I really hate this.

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Low of 29, currently 30 with moderate freezing rain falling.  No snow here, despite radar showing as much during initial burst, but everything is glazed over with a light layer of ice.  Schools have delays and it looks like the Route 30 bridge over the river is shut down until noon due to multiple crashes.

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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Snow chances tbd… but I think we will have our chances based on the pattern with the MJO moving towards phase 8 and the -WPO.

+AO/NAO and -PNA rolling forward tells me trough W/ridge E. 

I dont see MJO headed twds 8?  Where did you see that?  PNA is a big player in what we get here in the east.  Yes, WPO/EPO surely have a say as well, but AO/NAO and PNA trifecta that is against us, says whooaa big fella.  Yes, they can be overcome, but in mid march it needs to be anomalously so IMO.  Not trying to debbie, just calling it as I see it.   

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23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Euro also looked to be loading up for another potential Winter comeback possibility at the end of the 15 day run.

IMG_2264.png

One thing of note this year is that Op guidance seemingly has done pretty well vs longer lead ENS guidance, so hey, maybe once again, this has a chance.  Verbatim what you've shared would be "anomalous enough".  Lol

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