MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nam shifted those huge bands from NJ to Long Isand which gets into NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow Upton 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Band rotates over the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton was close to our contest consensus earlier and is now about 3" higher in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysoner Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 All of NJ is now under blizzard warnings, which extend well into PA. So is all of the Upton forecast area. The total area covered must be about 25,000 sq mi.. from Delmarva tip, to border of Maine. Anyone remember the last time there were such extensive blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warnings were just extended into Orange and Putnam county in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Insane run for our area 10:1 and Kuchera 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. Sherrill began repeated stating "stay off the roads" yesterday. Technically, there is no legislation in the state of NJ to outright ban travel, as was attempted during the covid crud. Most people will head warnings, as the term "blizzard" has been in everyone's life for nearly 24 hours now. Regardless of warnings, youll always have a certain percentage of folks that will attempt to travel. Luckily, Sunday afternoon and night is not a common heavy-traffic period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It’s amazing to me how so many model runs have only gotten better as the event gets closer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warning upgraded here to 16-20 inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. Will always be some who are impacted during travel. Unavoidable. This may be one of the VERY FEW benefits of a world engulfed by social media, though. Id be very surprised if anyone on the east coast hasnt been bombarded by blizzard-talk. I have relatives from both Oklahoma and Texas calling and asking me about the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Look at all that QPF. Good grief 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Look at all that QPF. Good grief Insane... never saw that ever for where I live (South Shore Long Island)...Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3k Nam is alot less than the 12k Nam but still impressive totals in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Insane run for our area 10:1 and Kuchera I think this is the first time NYC cracked 30 in a model run for this storm. Suffice to say this is quite a rare treat (even if it’s overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I think this is the first time NYC cracked 30 in a model run for this storm. Suffice to say this is quite a rare treat (even if it’s overdone). Could very well see someone between CT and Monmouth crack 3', if a persistent band sets up on the pivot. Going to be a very interesting final snow map. A lot of immediately coastal NJ may see totals (if they can be accurately guaged,) a bit on the lower side. Winds of this strength tend to compact snow depth during warmer snowfall. However, it also leads to some wild drifting. We will know in about 24 hours. Fun to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Latest HRRR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 RGEM about to clobber the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Some place within 20 miles of Sayreville to Freehold NJ could have those kinds of totals (30-36 in) and severe drifting. They may be driving snowmobiles down the NJ Turnpike rescuing stranded people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 If some of this verifies for LI, I hope my job is kind. When Nemo hit, my street didn’t get plowed for almost 48 hours after the snow stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Its game time! Flakes start flying in the next 4-6 hours. The goods get here around 4-6pm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Brooklyn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb. Its struggling. Less snow than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.Track seems further SE than other models...Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its struggling. Less snow than the last run. Noise. Overall, the whole evolution has grown more impressive incrementally over time. Speaking only about the rgem. Bigtime event inbound. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight. All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly farther west. The latter could be the difference for even higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together, expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches from the last forecast. On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is very much in line with the current forecast. However, a reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized higher amounts. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the forecast, it cannot be ruled out. Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur tonight into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight. All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly farther west. The latter could be the difference for even higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together, expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches from the last forecast. On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is very much in line with the current forecast. However, a reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized higher amounts. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the forecast, it cannot be ruled out. Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur tonight into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility. Thundersnow 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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