The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Snowlover11]

Is that stuff in central pa hitting the ground?

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Is that stuff in central pa hitting the ground?

RWR from KCTP

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Snowfall rates can jackpot with thunder snow. Though I have seen it go either way. Either heavy snow, or a change to sleet!

12/30/00 was sure as hell no change to sleet and that must've been 4" per hour when it was the once I heard thundersnow. Was literally blinding heavy snow. The rain line wasn't too far east in Suffolk County, Long Beach lucked out for once that day.  

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is very consistent

much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM

Nam is too aggressive imo

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM

Idk anyone who thinks this will drop 40 inches but 20"+ is certainly a decent possibility. 

[MJO812]

Latest NBM

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Upton hedging with 3-23" lol
 
Mt. Holly has a crazier 1-25" for Philadelphia 
 

"I'm playing both sides that way I always end up on top"

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[Roger Smith]

What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed).

Never mind, I found the map ... 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK, 17.1" EWR

... I am sure I saw higher values earlier so they have cut back slightly. They don't specify LGA so I took a map interpolation for that one. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

I thought the story was that he died of natural causes.

I checked with three different AI programs, ChatGPT, perplexity, and Grok and two of three say official cause was natural causes.
 

ChatGPT which I originally used without checking the others did have the suicide story but apparently that's incorrect. Should have known better than to trust one source. 

[MJO812]

HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc

[Roger Smith]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc

How? Weather balloon? 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed).

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. 

These were the earlier ones

17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. 

These were the earlier ones

17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR

 

Seems reasonable. 

[MJO812]

Nam shifted those huge bands from NJ to Long Isand which gets into NYC.

[MJO812]

Wow Upton 

[MJO812]

Band rotates over the area

[Roger Smith]

Upton was close to our contest consensus earlier and is now about 3" higher in general. 

[jaysoner]

All of NJ is now under blizzard warnings, which extend well into PA. So is all of the Upton forecast area. The total area covered must be about 25,000 sq mi.. from Delmarva tip, to border of Maine. Anyone remember the last time there were such extensive blizzard warnings?

[Roger Smith]

Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Blizzard warnings were just extended into Orange and Putnam county in NY. 

[MJO812]

Insane run for our area

 

10:1 and Kuchera

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. 

Sherrill began repeated stating "stay off the roads" yesterday.   Technically, there is no legislation in the state of NJ to outright ban travel, as was attempted during the covid crud.   

Most people will head warnings, as the term "blizzard" has been in everyone's life for nearly 24 hours now.  Regardless of warnings, youll always have a certain percentage of folks that will attempt to travel.   Luckily, Sunday afternoon and night is not a common heavy-traffic period.  

[NsWx516]

It’s amazing to me how so many model runs have only gotten better as the event gets closer

[MJO812]

Blizzard warning upgraded here to 16-20 inches.

[Roger Smith]

I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. 

Will always be some who are impacted during travel.    Unavoidable.  This may be one of the VERY FEW benefits of a world engulfed by social media, though.  Id be very surprised if anyone on the east coast hasnt been bombarded by blizzard-talk.   I have relatives from both Oklahoma and Texas calling and asking me about the storm.  

[EasternLI]

Look at all that QPF. Good grief 

[T5403CG]

Look at all that QPF. Good grief 

Insane... never saw that ever for where I live (South Shore Long Island)...



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