nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM Icon blows up offshore pretty much a non event for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM 1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said: Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall The entire evolution is different WRT that initial low. We need that look to come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM Just now, nycsnow said: Icon blows up offshore pretty much a non event for most of us Better than 6z. All we can ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:31 PM Also need the ridge out in the Rockies to shift westward also using the ICON 5 days out is useless IMO - this will not be centered over a relatively small area of the DEL MARVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude. The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here. The upper levels drive the lower levels, not the other way around. The 6z and, to a lesser extent 00z, were further off than the 12z to being a much bigger deal up here heights backed significantly more ahead of the system. You tilt that initial s/w ahead of the ULL more meridionally, all the Sudden you end up cutting it off 50-100 miles north and have a different story We can work with something similar to what the 12z ICON shows, the previous few runs, not so much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM 2/18 12z ICON Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM 2/1 12z Summary NYC ICON: 0 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2 GFS: 0.7 GGEM: 0.8 UKMET: 0.1 GEFS: 0.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM ICON eps a bit further s/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:50 PM GFS AI AIGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:53 PM Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM GFS AI AIGFS total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM I was never excited about this threat. To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM Jb thinks blizzard 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:58 PM 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I was never excited about this threat. To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us. Positive trends at 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Positive trends at 6z I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Jb thinks blizzard Oh damnit it’s over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM 12Z GFS closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:06 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM Gfs is heartbreakingly close haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM GFS has this really bombing out close enough still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Jb thinks blizzard For who cape cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:07 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS closer to coast Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM For who cape cod?Gfs just moved back towards the coast and north a couple 100 miles since last night. Wouldn't take much more. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM If that ridge is east of Idaho it’s game over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:08 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:09 PM 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South. it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM Just now, NJwx85 said: Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South. Verbatim, yes. Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: it still is snowing in the imm 2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: If that ridge is east of Idaho it’s game over. ediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone we will still see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.6 inches into the city on this run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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