Wednesday Feb 18 Mixed event. NoP refresher?

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not much ice or snow to speak of for this one in CT albeit the extreme northern areas along the MA border 

Probably not correct 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably not correct 

I hope not

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I hope not

We should have a good feel by noon tomorrow . With that maritime low.. it argues for a continued south trend . But we’ll see

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Those are terrible maps

Realistically, They all are if you get right down to it.

[NeonPeon]

This is why it's nice to be in this horrible location for snow. Will I get no snow, or no snow? I'm going with... Well, actually, I'm driving up to the Adirondacks again. Good luck.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nam is a tick South.  

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is pretty cold too. It’s not particularly juicy though. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

What the qpf takes away from here hopefully the cold gives back.  2-4” or 3-5” still seems likely.  

[Boston Bulldog]

Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM.

There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AIFS and Euro-AI models over the past couple days. Just look at projections for 2/19 at 0z since 12z on Valentine’s Day. The N-NE extent of QPF has gone from the tristate region to CNE. The GFS has also mirrored these steady ticks over the last 48 hours. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again.

What DOES give me pause on this is the NAM is getting closer to range and is doubling down on the weaker/south idea.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM.

There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AI models over the past couple days as well. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again.

Still plenty of time to steal someone’s snow