baltosquid Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Canadian looks encouraging at 96. edit: 102 looks more encouraging… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: As noted previously, CMC looks like the RGEM through 84. GGEM is slightly less amplified than RGEM at 84 hours...so they might end up close...but RGEM was going to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Upper air temps seem great through the entire event on the GFS. Pretty tasty map right here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Rain in the cities at 102, snow west of there, super amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner. So perhaps people calling the time of death on this threat last night was premature? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Hello 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Damn CMC might do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Rain in the cities at 102, snow west of there, super amped. I'd wait for it to get going to see, but yeah, looks like rain to start...barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The difference is minor but there...take whatever the GGEM ends up showing and develop the storm a little sooner and amp it up a bit more and that's what the RGEM was showing...which isn't to say one is more right lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 And boom, quickly to snow. Canadian looks to drop the hammer. 988 right off ORF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Damn CMC might do it Bombs out too early and kills se of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, stormtracker said: I'd wait for it to get going to see, but yeah, looks like rain to start...barely Oh Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Now thats how you do a CCB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 whoh canadian.....what is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, mitchnick said: Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho. Everything trends a certain way...except when we need it that way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 988 of OBX at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 From the latest LWX AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder this weekend with potential for coastal storm, with colder temperatures persisting into early next week. Pattern supportive of leader-follow system this weekend with leader coming Friday and follower Sunday. Upper-level trends over the past few synoptic runs in deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended slightly more favorable for a Sunday system to materialize. More blocking in the Atlantic with a ridge going up offshore has trended to more amplification and models hinting at a storm (potentially bigger). However, just as many ensembles show a weaker system with ridging and suppressed storm out to sea. Moisture does appear to be plentiful; the main uncertainty is how much cold air there will be to work with. Would need a stronger system to get impactful snow outside terrain in order to get more cold air brought into system. Even if a storm does develop, may not be all snow outside mountains with rain mixing in. Overall H5 pattern does support upslope snow behind the departing trough. To show the uncertainty, the EPS 50th percentile is currently a coating to an inch for most (several inches in the Alleghenies), while the 90th percentile is a solid 10-15". If the storm does come to fruition, it could be rather impactful as seen in WPC WSSI-P probs. Could also be a swing and a miss; time will tell. Regardless of this precipitation uncertainty, model guidance is in general agreement for a period of colder temperatures following this system, and the start of next week could trend significantly colder with highs in the 20s for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 H5 captures and stacks with surface low here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Bombs out too early and kills se of us Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Salisbury gets pummeled on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho. Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 971mb moving off OBX and obliterates CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Closed H5 low going right across the NC/VA border. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Yeah, it's a CAPE special for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I just cant buy this scenario here in the Northern Neck but what a run....waiting on Snow maps now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Huh? The boom is se. Kills the coast. Need the h5 cut off little more nw but overall not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Give me another nudge that way please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Salisbury tho. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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