Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[baltosquid]

Canadian looks encouraging at 96.

 

edit: 102 looks more encouraging…

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

As noted previously, CMC looks like the RGEM through 84.  

GGEM is slightly less amplified than RGEM at 84 hours...so they might end up close...but RGEM was going to be better.  

[clskinsfan]

Upper air temps seem great through the entire event on the GFS. Pretty tasty map right here.

[LP08]

Rain in the cities at 102, snow west of there, super amped.

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner.

So perhaps people calling the time of death on this threat last night was premature?

[TSSN+]

Hello 

 

[stormtracker]

Damn CMC might do it

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Rain in the cities at 102, snow west of there, super amped.

I'd wait for it to get going to see, but yeah, looks like rain to start...barely

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol

Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've  watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho.

[psuhoffman]

The difference is minor but there...take whatever the GGEM ends up showing and develop the storm a little sooner and amp it up a bit more and that's what the RGEM was showing...which isn't to say one is more right lol 

[stormtracker]

And boom, quickly to snow.  Canadian looks to drop the hammer.  988 right off ORF

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn CMC might do it

Bombs out too early and kills se of us 

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd wait for it to get going to see, but yeah, looks like rain to start...barely

Oh Canada?

[SnowenOutThere]

Now  thats how you do a CCB

[Shad]

whoh canadian.....what is happening

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've  watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho.

Everything trends a certain way...except when we need it that way 

[Solution Man]

988 of OBX at 108

[arlwx12]

From the latest LWX AFD...

KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder this weekend with potential for coastal
storm, with colder temperatures persisting into early next week.

Pattern supportive of leader-follow system this weekend with leader
coming Friday and follower Sunday. Upper-level trends over the past
few synoptic runs in deterministic and ensemble guidance have
trended slightly more favorable for a Sunday system to materialize.
More blocking in the Atlantic with a ridge going up offshore has
trended to more amplification and models hinting at a storm
(potentially bigger). However, just as many ensembles show a weaker
system with ridging and suppressed storm out to sea. Moisture does
appear to be plentiful; the main uncertainty is how much cold air
there will be to work with. Would need a stronger system to get
impactful snow outside terrain in order to get more cold air brought
into system. Even if a storm does develop, may not be all snow
outside mountains with rain mixing in. Overall H5 pattern does
support upslope snow behind the departing trough. To show the
uncertainty, the EPS 50th percentile is currently a coating to an
inch for most (several inches in the Alleghenies), while the 90th
percentile is a solid 10-15". If the storm does come to fruition, it
could be rather impactful as seen in WPC WSSI-P probs. Could
also be a swing and a miss; time will tell. Regardless of this
precipitation uncertainty, model guidance is in general
agreement for a period of colder temperatures following this
system, and the start of next week could trend significantly
colder with highs in the 20s for most of the region.

[SnowenOutThere]

H5 captures and stacks with surface low here

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Bombs out too early and kills se of us 

Huh?

[clskinsfan]

Salisbury gets pummeled on the GGEM. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Inverted troughs always seem to trend east since I've  watched them. Again, never 100%, but enough to feel like east of the mts are in a decent spot imho.

Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting…

[baltosquid]

971mb moving off OBX and obliterates CAPE

[LP08]

Closed H5 low going right across the NC/VA border.  Sweet.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's a CAPE special for sure

[Shad]

I just cant buy this scenario here in the Northern Neck but what a run....waiting on Snow maps now

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Huh?

The boom is se. Kills the coast. Need the h5 cut off little more nw but overall not a bad look. 

[baltosquid]

Give me another nudge that way please

[stormtracker]

Salisbury tho.  Damn