Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation. 

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs:

So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the average of 2,044 analogs. 

[Amped]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW 

There's like 10 members over Cape May.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time. 

[GreyHat]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Sorry, it's dry according to greyhat

Thanks for thinking of me. But been screwed last time you all saw the digital snow. Turned out to be rain. I said earlier wait till Friday and I would believe it otherwise it's a nice rain event. 

[GreyHat]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm

Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today

High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F

That ridge is going to move east tomorrow. Then there is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north stays generally in control. Maybe it's some wet snow and upper 30s as the best case scenario. 

But a lot of times when temps are busting high with an oncoming ridge, the storm just ends up getting sheared out or weak. 

Thank you, as I highlighted your first sentence. 

Over here our 5 day outlook is rain Friday and Sunday.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS: transfer to coast is far enough south and close enough to the coast this run.

 

 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS: transfer to coast is far enough south and close enough to the coast this run.

 

 

AiGfs very similar with big hit fwiw.

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm 

I think he just wishes it would be warm 

[mitchnick]

EuroAI huge hit

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI huge hit

Need maps

[mitchnick]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Need maps

All I have are TT, and they don't even differentiate between rain and snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI

[aldie 22]

10 hours ago, Ji said:

no--it was just a joke for Aldie22. Winchester is too far west for snow usually lol

I'll make a wager with you on what happens first...big snow in Winchester or you pointing out accurately where you live on a map. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI

See, I  know how to read a TT map! Lol

Thanks Will.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Ridiculous CCB action on euro ai, basically perfection for us.  Just need this to hold for a few days. 

[Ji]

I think 6z euro will be better. The thing in the east is further east and our sw is further west so more seperation?

[LeesburgWx]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI

Agreed. Huge hit.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Such a good run…..this is gonna be stressful to watch for the next few days.  It will good to keep in mind miller B crush job DC to BOS isn’t common and there is a chance we end up on the outside looking in.  That said, let’s keep this right where it is LFG!!!!! 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Ridiculous CCB action on euro ai, basically perfection for us.  Just need this to hold for a few days. 

WB 6Z EURO AI starting 1 pm Sunday.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI starting 2pm Sunday.

But what are the winds like?

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

But what are the winds like?

Around 20 sustained; don't have gusts.

[Ji]

Euro made a big shift west. Nothing like the Ai but notable improvement

[Weather Will]

WB EURO much better this run but not the AI. Compared to 0Z starting to go negative much earlier but still open and not nearly as amped as AI.

[Ji]

[mitchnick]

I hear the Euro is better...

[wasnow215]

28 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I think he just wishes it would be warm 

WarmChaserChuck

[mitchnick]

Lol. Euro has it mixing with rain post 129hrs. Needs to really wind up.

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

This pretty much now means every model gives us snow in one form or another 

[Weather Will]

Wait for ensembles....WB 6Z EURO still figuring it out. Comparisons to 6Z for 15Z Sunday and 0Z Monday.

[Quasievil]

I will not let these models pull me back in again, I will not let these models pull me back in again.

Damn it.