Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation. 

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs:

So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the average of 2,044 analogs. 

[Amped]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW 

There's like 10 members over Cape May.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time. 

[GreyHat]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Sorry, it's dry according to greyhat

Thanks for thinking of me. But been screwed last time you all saw the digital snow. Turned out to be rain. I said earlier wait till Friday and I would believe it otherwise it's a nice rain event. 

[GreyHat]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm

Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today

High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F

That ridge is going to move east tomorrow. Then there is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north stays generally in control. Maybe it's some wet snow and upper 30s as the best case scenario. 

But a lot of times when temps are busting high with an oncoming ridge, the storm just ends up getting sheared out or weak. 

Thank you, as I highlighted your first sentence. 

Over here our 5 day outlook is rain Friday and Sunday.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS: transfer to coast is far enough south and close enough to the coast this run.

 

 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS: transfer to coast is far enough south and close enough to the coast this run.

 

 

AiGfs very similar with big hit fwiw.

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm 

I think he just wishes it would be warm 

[mitchnick]

EuroAI huge hit

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI huge hit

Need maps

[mitchnick]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Need maps

All I have are TT, and they don't even differentiate between rain and snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI

[aldie 22]

10 hours ago, Ji said:

no--it was just a joke for Aldie22. Winchester is too far west for snow usually lol

I'll make a wager with you on what happens first...big snow in Winchester or you pointing out accurately where you live on a map. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI

See, I  know how to read a TT map! Lol

Thanks Will.