Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like precip around .3"

Thanks.  Hard to tell how "heavy" the precip is in that image above, with those green shadings (and what they mean).  On a related note, I believe the AI models typically are not the greatest for amounts, but are better for overall coverage.  Something like that.

[mitchnick]

GfsAI is a lot of rain as the systems go to our NW.

[GreyHat]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

GfsAI is a lot of rain as the systems go to our NW.

Agree, and the GFS has fool those before and sadly it will again, especially after posting snow maps with those amounts.I  love snow just like anyone else,  but climo and this time period. Need to be more realistic and if anything maybe the Euro AI is your goal post.

[Solution Man]

GFS trying , it’s there with a modest hit, but doesn’t climb, it stalls thru 156

[bncho]

Just now, Solution Man said:

GFS trying 

You sound like my awful PBP.

Anyway, it starts as rain but flips to some nice snowfall

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

You sound like my awful PBP.

Anyway, it starts as rain but flips to some nice snowfall

No one is that bad 

[bncho]

Low-end warning/high end advisory event on the GFS

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

Low-end warning/high end advisory event on the GFS

 

[Solution Man]

Something to track for the weekend

[bncho]

I'm going to crash out if we have to deal with another messy 5" while NYC and BOS get 20" of cold smoke

[mitchnick]

The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY  encouraging to me.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY  encouraging to me.

My big fear is that we end up too far south for the redeveloping Miller B, but at this lead time, it's very encouraging.

[stormy]

The GFS is a huge impact to the possibility.

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY  encouraging to me.

Two worst models. This has north trend feeling. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut know and then.. We will see 

[LeesburgWx]

ICON is sexy AF. GFS sucks ass and still snows on us. I’m back in

[bncho]

CMC puts all of that energy into the CAPE cutter

[mitchnick]

Geez....ENE doesn't lose on any of the models. Wonder what that's like. 

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Geez....ENE doesn't lose on any of the models. Wonder what that's like. 

Here’s what it’s like 

https://youtu.be/E07s5ZYygMg?si=JxP42Rz0bokRecsw

[Shad]

CMC says what storm

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Shad said:

CMC says what storm

But has a similar storm at the end that is moderate had the run gone over 240hrs.

[Heisy]

Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on

UKIE starts as rain but flips to mod-heavy snow as the low turns stronger

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on

Starts as rain but goes over to 7-10” southern Md into Pa 

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Starts as rain but goes over to 7-10” southern Md into Pa 

[Heisy]

But has a similar storm at the end that is moderate had the run gone over 240hrs.

The pac giving the models problems. Play gfs/icon vs cmc H5 and you can sort of see why they’re doing what they’re doing. I don’t like that the 6z euro is camp cmc, but hopefully that changes here soon

[bncho]

Here's the SPIRE for reference... quite INSPIRING

[Ji]

GfsAI is a lot of rain as the systems go to our NW.

Same thing it did last week and it was off by 1000miles

[anotherman]

Where’s Chuck?

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Where’s Chuck?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Is this the only thing you post here? lol