2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The delmarva and even points S have done fine, more than fine, during recent winters with the nina base state. Some winters even beat climo down that way. However, the further NW one goes, the worse winters have performed relative to local climos (save for the higher elevs). My winters here have been alright except for 22-23, but still fell short of my 20-22” local climo. Last year I got close.

And when you get up to a place like State College, PA, they’ve done dramatically bad relative to their climo. What used to be 50” easily, they’re barely scratching their way to 20”. Like bad. Really bad. I’m just glad I don’t live there now, whereas I used to be envious that they were getting so much snow relative to the DMV. 

Like I said to CAPE NW loses its advantage if it’s too warm when it’s warm!  When it’s truly cold the odds of a wave hitting here v DC or Richmond is pretty even. I used to her more (and state college) because it used to snow in bad patterns a lot more up here. I can list sooo many 3-5” snows during pac puke warm regimes that were rain for 95. Those have gone away, hence our advantage is significantly muted. Not gone. I still her more. But recently the spread between here and CAPE isn’t as big as it once was. Same phenomenon is affecting state college. You have to get up into New England to get steady snows doing bad patterns now. 

[ravensrule]

In 1312 i would have had 6” from this. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Like I said to CAPE NW loses its advantage if it’s too warm when it’s warm!  When it’s truly cold the odds of a wave hitting here v DC or Richmond is pretty even. I used to her more (and state college) because it used to snow in bad patterns a lot more up here. I can list sooo many 3-5” snows during pac puke warm regimes that were rain for 95. Those have gone away, hence our advantage is significantly muted. Not gone. I still her more. But recently the spread between here and CAPE isn’t as big as it once was. Same phenomenon is affecting state college. You have to get up into New England to get steady snows doing bad patterns now. 

Don S posted a link to a good paper discussing the change in storm tracks that had a hand in greatly diminishing snowfall across PA and the northern half of our sub. Worth a read imo. Open question is will arctic amplification contribute to more -AO that might later benefit us?

 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the phenomenon is purely Nina. You’re right WRT average places SE or 95 are doing better. But the issue is the season places NW had an advantage wasn’t in cold patterns. When it’s arctic cold the odds of you getting snow are actually similar to me!  I might eke out slightly more from upslope but it’s negligible.  The reason I average so much more is because I’m supposed to have a HuGE advantage RIGHT NOW!  Today is supposed to be a rainstorm for 95 and a 3-4” snow up here. The advantage here is in bad patterns we eke out snows that 95 SE can’t!  But the last 10 years those aren’t happening. In bad patterns it’s so warm lately they don’t work!  So we snow the same amount as you when it’s cold and we don’t snow at all just like you when it’s warm. 

I lived up there for almost 10 years as a kid( in the 80s), so I get the historical advantages in marginal setups. About 10 miles south of Westminster at an elevation just under 800 feet. I think Westminster averages about 35 inches, probably a bit less where I lived but not by much.

[SnowenOutThere]

On topic to this storm but look to clinch between .8-.9 inches of rain. Going to see the streams quite happy with that and the remaining snowmelt. Hopefully will hike out Tuesday to some waterfalls! 

[bncho]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

All this talk about 1970 and snow or rain because of 2 degrees is quite amusing. 2 degrees cannot be used 50 years later to decide rain or snow.  That is a fool-hearty venture. Many other parameters are involved.

50 years ago some winters produced a lot of snow, others did not.  It will be that way 50 years into the future.

Much of this winter has been plenty cold for snow but we have been locked into a long-term serious drought which has almost certainly been a factor.

In 1956, Staunton received 8.6 inches of snow. The average annual for the past 40 years has been 24 inches. I did not cherry pick 1956.  1952 only received 6.2" of snow.

In 1976, Staunton received 15.3 inches.

In 1996 Staunton received 21.5"

In 2016 Staunton received 24.5"

Lets relax, be positive and look forward to 2-21 thru 2-23.

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious.

Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it to a warmer climate?

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, bncho said:

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious.

Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it to a warmer climate?

Preview: he can’t 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don S posted a link to a good paper discussing the change in storm tracks that had a hand in greatly diminishing snowfall across PA and the northern half of our sub. Worth a read imo. Open question is will arctic amplification contribute to more -AO that might later benefit us?

 

Thank you, that was very informative...and also incredibly depressing.  Implies, as I feared, some of the pacific issues we are having are more than just "its cyclical and we will break out of it".  Don't get me wrong there are moving parts here and some of it is cyclical, we most definitely are in a -PDO cycle which is making some of it worse...but the theory here seems to be a la nina base state in the north pacific is the result of longer term changes related to the elephant.  I've heard it before, makes sense...and is depressing.  

I have some questions regarding arctic amplification and any possible benefits.  I think it's possible that when things go good...they could go VERY good...hence years like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014.  But there is a statute of limitations to how far that effect can last in a warming base state.  For example, we are seeing mid level ridges linking up with high latitude ridges more and more...at some point that will simply be the normal every time and the benefit of high latitude ridging will be negated once troughs are no longer forced to cut under and everything simply amplifies into huge full latitude ridges and troughs.  That isn't good even when we get under the troughs since a full latitude trough is typically just cold and dry and trasient.  That's why i scream when someone breaks out a 1993 analog from 15 days out because the pattern that produced 1993 superstorm can do that...but 99.9% of the time that kind of full latitude trough/ridge configuration is simply a cold front and a few days of cold dry.  Sure we could see more super massive storms but most of the time we will just see more warm/wet cold dry winters....heavy on the warm...is my guess.  

Also... does arcic warming really help if the whole base state is warmer?  It's not really the warmth in the arctic that helps us its the flow created by a ridge there and how it compresses the mid latitude flow under it.  If it's simply warmer up top does that do the same thing to the same extent?  EHH?  I don't know I am asking.  Just spit balling what some of the implications of what I read would be for us.  

I see some ways in which it could help...could...but I see a LOT of ways in which it is already tangibly hurting us so...not thrilling lol 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

In 1312 i would have had 6” from this. 

But in 989, it would have been 9” 

[ChillinIt]

Snow mixing in NW Cecil County 33.2 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious.

Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it 

Rain about to end here.  Almost .5".  This was a better event than I thought it'd be.  Much needed and I won't miss the salt that covered everything.

[EastCoast NPZ]

In 18,000 BC this would've been 10" of snow on 20:1 ratios.

[stormy]

4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How did Staunton only get 21.5" in 1996?

95-96 was 66

96-97 was 21.5

[stormy]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious.

Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it to a warmer climate?

Listen "dude"     If I had wanted to "cherry pick" I could have picked 09/10 and 63 inches or 95/96 and 66 inches and compared those to those poor/poor pitiful 50's when it didn't snow according to psu.  Gee, We have been lead to believe that it always snowed a lot more before 1970. Gotta leave the 50's out of that equation........................

Listen dude, regarding DCA dropping from 25 to 14 in a hundred years. Did you ever hear of UHI?

[poprock49]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

Listen "dude"     If I had wanted to "cherry pick" I could have picked 09/10 and 63 inches or 95/96 and 66 inches and compared those to those poor/poor pitiful 50's when it didn't snow according to psu.  Gee, We have been lead to believe that it always snowed a lot more before 1970. Gotta leave the 50's out of that equation........................

Listen dude, regarding DCA dropping from 25 to 14 in a hundred years. Did you ever hear of UHI?

UHI doesn’t nearly (like, not even close) account for everything’s that’s happened. It’s true that before DCA the city’s official readings may have come from some slightly cooler location, but the decline has been steady and, most importantly, is visible in the same manner region wide, not to mention the rest of the country and the world. It’s just that DC has official records going back to the 1870s (longer than many other locations and what could be considered pre-industrial for these purposes) and therefore the trend is very obvious in its data.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NAO's lowest Winter (DJFM) reading since 2010-2011 was -0.24. 14/15 Winter's were >0 NAO. Months with Winter NAO >1.11 were 19 positive, and 0 negative since 2010-11. That's a significant piece to the puzzle - we are max +NAO decadal for the last 15 years. 

Add in the strong -PNA that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2026 and it starts to make a little more sense. Not to say that the average snowfall hasn't dropped, but it's not as big as it appears. 

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, stormy said:

Listen "dude"     If I had wanted to "cherry pick" I could have picked 09/10 and 63 inches or 95/96 and 66 inches and compared those to those poor/poor pitiful 50's when it didn't snow according to psu.  Gee, We have been lead to believe that it always snowed a lot more before 1970. Gotta leave the 50's out of that equation........................

Listen dude, regarding DCA dropping from 25 to 14 in a hundred years. Did you ever hear of UHI?

You ARE cherry picking. Why the hell are you choosing 1956? And when you add twenty years to that, 1976, 1996, 2016... the numbers go up only because of COINCIDENCE.

The 1950s were MUCH snowier than you think they were, too! Here are the ten-year averages, also graphed below:

1891-1900: 27.1"
1901-1910: 23.1"
1911-1920: 23.0"
1921-1930: 20.0"
1931-1940: 21.0"
1941-1950: 18.5"
1951-1960: 18.5"
1961-1970: 26.5"
1971-1980: 14.5"
1981-1990: 15.4"
1991-2000: 16.3"
2001-2010: 18.0"
2011-2020: 14.9"
2021-2025: 6.8"

The UHI effect isn't negligible, but it should NOT cause this steep of a decrease in snowfall! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I didn't realize the 1970s were our most snowless decade until this one. I guess the cold/dry thing is bigger than you would think.