2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No red herrings involved. My first post showing the warmth this month was based on the warmest 1991-2020 averages. So that is why I kept it for continuity between posts.

But your cooler base period doesn’t show any material difference from the main point how much warmer this summer has been than past developing El Niños due to the record ridging from north of Hawaii across the CONUS.

So it just seems like you are inventing ways to be argumentative without addressing the main point. 

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

[bluewave]

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

The oceans are on fire globally

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The oceans are on fire globally

They are overall although not the BN Arctic interestingly enough.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

The summer of 1987 was only the 6th warmest summer of the 1980s ranking only around the 60th warmest summer average temperature overall for the CONUS since 1895.

The warmest summer from that era was 1988 which was the 12th warmest average temperature for the CONUS.

While the summer of 1987  was warmer than the 1982 developing super El Nino, the 500mb and temperature pattern from the Pacific to the Atlantic was a general match for El Nino.

Even though there was an area of warmer departures relative to the other regions in portions of the East, other areas from the Pacific to Atlantic did match El Nino expectations. Since you can have a good general match without 100% conformity to the El Nino composite.
 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That will be the test going forward. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming months. Since the seasonal models missed this summer pattern. So the seasonal models may even have lower skill than they traditionally have had beyond the one month forecast period. 

This summer is featuring a weaker Aleutian low than usual for a developing super El Niño and a much stronger mid-latitude ridge across the Pacific and the CONUS. 

So if this continues into the winter , then it could mean the traditional super El Niño ridge gets displaced further south and perhaps east into the CONUS than usual.

Since a -PDO atmospheric state even overlapping at 10%-20% relative to the winter super El Niño forcing could lead to shifts.

This would have implications on the warmth and possibly where the heaviest precipitation zones set up. 

The mid-latitude ridges being stronger than the troughs has been the main feature of our winters and other seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

 

You've posted this several times this year and even before the 24/25 winter. So are you saying the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong? I mean you could be right, or you could be wrong  obviously, but your post appear to be simply saying "current seasonal modeling could be wrong." Forget about the rest of the globe because I'm sure we'll find seasonal modeling too strong or weak with ridges/troughs as that's a given.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

The fact that the PDO has dropped -2 during the time of Nino 3.4 warming +2.4 has to be some kind of record too, for both sides (Nina+PDO too). It might be a 5-6std event.

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling. 

Ah, I see what happened now. Sorry for the confusion this morning. You probably thought I was referencing what bluewave was posting about. I was not. I was referencing what so_whats_happening had posted. About recurving typhoons. Which is why I quoted him. Was a coincidence I posted that right after BW did. I think I could have worded that a little better. Perhaps it was just too early.

[GaWx]

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

[EasternLI]

This loop is impressive.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

Yeah, that plunge looks like 1973, 1988, 1998, 2010 territory. All of those years resulted in a backlash, strong la nina.

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

If the anticipated decay of the Niño occurs during that timeframe (or ideally later), it would favor another warm and active spring for the Midwest especially. I’ll take it.