2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The hot summer of 1991 was an exception.

July 1991 actually had a cooler El Niño-like -0.52 pattern across the CONUS compared to the record warmth this July at +2.4.

July 1991

73.87°F

-0.52°F

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social

· 1d

It's going to be a close call, but it now appears more likely than not that July 2026 will be the warmest month on record in the Contiguous U.S. As of today, we are essentially tied with July 1936 and July 2012.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.

The arctic outbreak INVO VD Day was pretty remarkable.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

July 1991 actually had a cooler El Niño-like -0.52 pattern across the CONUS compared to the record warmth this July at +2.4.

July 1991

73.87°F

-0.52°F

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social

· 1d

It's going to be a close call, but it now appears more likely than not that July 2026 will be the warmest month on record in the Contiguous U.S. As of today, we are essentially tied with July 1936 and July 2012.

 

 

 

 Chris, my point is that the summer of 1991 didn’t follow the pattern of the mean of the other 5 as it was net warmer than normal in the E 1/2 of the Conus vs it being colder than normal for the other 5 years averaged out:

 

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.

I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.

[LakePaste25]

CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…

 

[GaWx]

 1. The July SOI comes in way down at -26.8,  by far the lowest July SOI on record. The only lower ones during met. summer were the -27.7 in June of 1905 and the -27.0 in June of 1896, both incoming El Niños.

2. This brings us to 82 straight days of -SOI. Going back to when records are readily available (since 1991), this is second only to the 100 days of 1998! It’s too early to tell whether or not the current streak will reach 100 days.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.

 

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.

97-98 was not half bad for the Great Lakes/SNE if i remember correctly. December ‘97 was decent here while it was a total shutout in 2015. 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

People forget that our coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century happened during a strong el nino.

The 23/24 Nino was supposed to be very favorable for snows but it ended up being one the warmest/least snowiest. 

ENSO is still just one factor 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chris, my point is that the summer of 1991 didn’t follow the pattern of the mean of the other 5 as it was net warmer than normal in the E 1/2 of the Conus vs it being colder than normal for the other 5 years averaged out:

 

 

My sister was born July 18, 1991. I was 8 years old and I remember how brutally hot and humid it was. My mom always talks about how it was so hot when she was born.

[GaWx]

 Darwin’s pressure has averaged 1015+ mb, a high pressure for there, for 22 straight days! That’s a new record (back to 1991) that breaks the old record of 20 days that was set during another developing super Nino, July of 2015. I’m expecting that streak to finally end tomorrow.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

97-98 was not half bad for the Great Lakes/SNE if i remember correctly. December ‘97 was decent here while it was a total shutout in 2015. 

97-98 wasnt the disaster here that it was on the east coast, but it was one of the last strong Ninos Id pick, only '82-83 was worse. Interesting about '97-98 is that it was front-loaded and Feb was a shutout. mid Nov to mid Dec was actually decent. So was the 2nd half of Jan. Everything else sucked.

Shittiest strong Ninos locally: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24

Best strong Ninos locally: 1877-78, 1972-73, 2015-16

At Detroit, the least snowy strong Nino is 1982-83 with 20.0" and the snowiest 45.0" in 1972-73.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

My sister was born July 18, 1991. I was 8 years old and I remember how brutally hot and humid it was. My mom always talks about how it was so hot when she was born.

Out of the dozens of (pre) El Niño summers, 1991 was the 2nd hottest at Detroit on record with only the pre late developing weak Nino summer of 2018 hotter! The 3rd hottest Nino summer was 2002, which preceded a very snowy and cold winter that was one of the coldest and snowiest moderate or stronger El Niño winters there as you know.

[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My sister was born July 18, 1991. I was 8 years old and I remember how brutally hot and humid it was. My mom always talks about how it was so hot when she was born.

It was. My daughter was born in August of 91'. My wife remembers it in more detail than me! Lol