2026-2027 Super El Nino

[chubbs]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June. 

 

 

Thinking about ONI and RONI. Surface winds like trades are driven by surface temperature difference, so RONI probably more relevent. Precipitation and heat release to atmosphere from condensation are driven by moisture content. Warmer air holds more moisture so ONI is probably more relevent. Jet stream should have some ONI influence due to extra warming of tropical deep atmosphere from condensation. Will be interesting to see how the two factors play out.

[snowman19]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update. 
 
 

Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
 

[LakePaste25]

 

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The Bjerknes feedback started last month. And those typhoons are only going to amplify the WWBs/westerlies behind them, in their wake. We are witnessing a historic event that will be remembered for many, many years to come

[bluewave]

On 6/18/2026 at 9:35 AM, LakePaste25 said:

So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1:
 
2026: +1.2

1997: +1.1

1987: +1.0

2015: +0.9

1982: +0.8

1994: +0.7

1991: +0.6

2002: +0.5

2009: +0.4

2023: +0.4

 

Data source:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

The El Niño standing wave/forcing around the dateline has become extremely well pronounced with organized and strong, persistent convection in that area. Negative OLR and negative CHI200 anomalies are really showing up now, indicating the strengthening of organized deep convection and upper tropospheric divergence….

@GaWx Given that the MEI is a measurement of SSTs, sea level pressure (which includes SOI in part of that measurement), surface winds and OLR, my guess is that it continues to rise at the current record-breaking pace on the next update

[40/70 Benchmark]

Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/

 

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/

 

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

We would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But we probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So we may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. We have been experiencing very extreme NAO and AO reversals since 2009-2010.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El 

I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

 

 

PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted. 

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.