2026-2027 Super El Nino

[chubbs]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June. 

 

 

Thinking about ONI and RONI. Surface winds like trades are driven by surface temperature difference, so RONI probably more relevent. Precipitation and heat release to atmosphere from condensation are driven by moisture content. Warmer air holds more moisture so ONI is probably more relevent. Jet stream should have some ONI influence due to extra warming of tropical deep atmosphere from condensation. Will be interesting to see how the two factors play out.

[snowman19]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update. 
 
 

Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
 

[LakePaste25]

 

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The Bjerknes feedback started last month. And those typhoons are only going to amplify the WWBs/westerlies behind them, in their wake. We are witnessing a historic event that will be remembered for many, many years to come

[bluewave]

On 6/18/2026 at 9:35 AM, LakePaste25 said:

So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1:
 
2026: +1.2

1997: +1.1

1987: +1.0

2015: +0.9

1982: +0.8

1994: +0.7

1991: +0.6

2002: +0.5

2009: +0.4

2023: +0.4

 

Data source:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

The El Niño standing wave/forcing around the dateline has become extremely well pronounced with organized and strong, persistent convection in that area. Negative OLR and negative CHI200 anomalies are really showing up now, indicating the strengthening of organized deep convection and upper tropospheric divergence….

@GaWx Given that the MEI is a measurement of SSTs, sea level pressure (which includes SOI in part of that measurement), surface winds and OLR, my guess is that it continues to rise at the current record-breaking pace on the next update

[40/70 Benchmark]

Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/