2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

I would like to see this cold bias documented too. Bias would mean it regularly runs too warm/cold. Cansips was the only model close to the cold in the great lakes and northeast last winter. Does that mean every other model has a warm bias?

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares

Even though its clear who the trolls are, its a shocking lack of understanding how the actual weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you. 

There was a 3" snow Nov 14 and another 1.6" the 15th. I dont remember forecasts that long ago (I was young lol). Mid november to mid December, the 2nd half of january, and spurts of March were wintry. The rest sucked.

[forkyfork]

wow someone named michsnowfreak is a climate change denier. bones found in cemetery 

[michsnowfreak]

Ignorance really is bliss with the trolls.

[snowman19]

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm really curious to see how the North Pacific High responds. Should be very telling about larger scale things. 

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

What was the total precip that winter in central park?  I remember the crappy winter snow wise (5.5" total here) but cant remember if it was wet too.  

[so_whats_happening]

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Where's El Nino in the N Pacific? 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

[roardog]

50 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts 

[raindancewx]

On the May update, the Euro had Nino 4 getting to 2-2.5C above the 30-year mean in December. That's a huge body of water, and far less volatile than the more eastern areas of the Tropical Pacific.

The correlation isn't super strong - but with a very extreme reading, of say 30.5C+ or warmer - never achieved on record - you have to assume we get close to the long-term trend.

Your 29.5C+ Decembers are 1994, 2006 (both just under but over 29.4), 2009, 2015, 2018, 2023. Basically dead on to the correlation. Also consistent with Decembers following my hottest 10 Marches of the past 100 years. I'd go 2-4 degrees warmer in the warmer areas and 1-2 degrees colder in the white areas based on the extremity forecast for December.

 

 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite.