40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic. Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between. In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll? Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago 22 minutes ago, FPizz said: Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll? Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here. You’re a f*cking asshole. Par for the course from you. Troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled. That cansips was from Sept though...pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago 42 minutes ago, FPizz said: Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll? Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here. should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 minute ago Share Posted 1 minute ago 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled. there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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