2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol

They dig and dig to find this stuff lol.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.

I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso.

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

can we have a separate thread for winter talk?

still coping with the winter cancel

[forkyfork]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

my area is currently in its hottest developing nino may heat wave on record

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

 I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!

[LakePaste25]

41 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

The key is to just roll with it. Fire up the BBQ on Christmas and make something good

[forkyfork]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

also hurricane season cancel

[LakePaste25]

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

[TheClimateChanger]

28 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

Incredible. Already as many or more 90+ days than 54 years - and it's only May 18. That's more than 1 in 3 years, and probably more like 1 in 2 or at least 2 in 5 if you back out recent decades where fewer than 2 90+ days has been exceptionally uncommon.