2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):

 

That is what we want to see to avoid the dreaded cool-ENSO-like se ridge during the coming season IMHO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May usually has a pretty strong pattern correlation in El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

A bit of snow is falling tonight. This is the 5th year since 2016 to see May snow. Chuck called a cool May 2 months ago.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.

 

 

[snowman19]

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.


 
 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond

The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

 

[snowman19]

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond
The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

 

Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.

 

 

 

 

My guess is that the ultimate peak we see in the fall will probably be influenced by how much WWB follow up we get. The recent models back off a bit for early May. They now forecast the next larger one by mid to late May. Could make the difference between a peak in the 2.0 to 2.4 range vs 2.5+. 
 

New run

Old run

 

[MarcmmKU]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Strong Ninos are still generally the worst-case scenario for winter here, but again, we still get winter. Ironically, the strong Nino you guys would pick out of the big guns would probably be 1982-83, and that was the worst one here. Each still has different patterns, some big storms, and often decent spells of winter....its just the mean over the whole season is subpar relative to climate. 

The east is more feast/famine. The Great Lakes always save us to an extent. Even in the worst case scenarios we get plenty of mood flake days to feel like winter.

Detroit and Boston average near identical seasonal snowfall. In the past 50 years....both places averaged 44". Yet, look at the top and bottom 5 in those 50 years at each location.

Detroit			  Boston
20.0” – 1982-83	    9.3” – 2011-12	
23.4” – 1997-98	    9.8” – 2023-24
23.5” – 2023-24	   12.4” – 2022-23
23.7” – 1999-00	   12.7” – 1979-80
24.1” – 2003-04	   14.9” – 1994-95

94.9” – 2013-14   110.6” – 2014-15
74.0” – 1981-82   107.6” – 1995-96
71.7” – 2007-08	   96.3” – 1993-94
69.1” – 2010-11	   86.6” – 2004-05
65.7” – 2008-09	   85.1” – 1977-78

 

Our variance is certainly very high.... Always makes the winter forecast a nail biter if you like snow lol

[roardog]

On 4/27/2026 at 8:32 AM, snowman19 said:

Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
 

 The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond

The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

 

Thanks, Chris

 To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least  ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record.

 This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

[snowman19]

 The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.

Incorrect

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Incorrect

 

 

 

 

Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.

This latest MJO forecast propagation we just saw was actually stellar weeks in advance. Spot on actually

[GaWx]

 We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:

[snowman19]

Wow….

[GaWx]

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:

It seems like it could level off for a brief time,the MJO is forecast to stay into the IO for a brief time but this seems like its from the Rossby Wave train into the IO with a Kelvin Wave moving towards the Peruvian coast,you  can see this as 1.2 is starting to rise now from downwelling Kelvin Wave.Another big WWB seems to be coming past mid month somewhere along the IDL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 temp/precip anomaly maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods. I can use the ERA 5 dataset on PSU:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

But it plots temps using degrees kelvin and precipitation in MM. Does anyone have a site that can generate DJFM temps maps using degrees F and precipitation using inches?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods.

I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm  not sure this is what you are looking for

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm  not sure this is what you are looking for

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

No, sorry...I see why you thought that because this is the ENSO thread. I apologize for the OT inquiry...I am asking about temp and precipitation anomaly map generation. Looking for a site that allows for daily map generation for temps in degrees F and precipitation in inches.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, sorry...I see why you thought that because this is the ENSO thread. I apologize for the OT inquiry...I am asking about temp and precipitation anomaly map generation. Looking for a site that allows for daily map generation for temps in degrees F and precipitation in inches.

Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself  where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself  where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO

I ask questions like that in this thread because this is where most of the seasonal guys like to congregate, so there is a method to my madness haha...not going OT just to be obnoxious.

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ask questions like that in this thread because this is where most of the seasonal guys like to congregate, so there is a method to my madness haha...not going OT just to be obnoxious.

I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 temp/precip anomaly maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods. I can use the ERA 5 dataset on PSU:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

But it plots temps using degrees kelvin and precipitation in MM. Does anyone have a site that can generate DJFM temps maps using degrees F and precipitation using inches?

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then

Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?

[jaxjagman]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

i did some research a couple days ago how a strong Nino effects our area or region.In general Dec can have some strong tornadoes which surprised me because we dont see this  in NINO into winter,in Jan along the Appalachian Mountains has flooding and a freak IP/SN happens in Feb

 

Edit:Other wise its going to be AN with with temps