2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we are still only getting a snapshot for the start of October, a +EPO is classic La Niña for October. We’ll see if heights can rebound a bit near Alaska which is more typical for El Niño. Still to early to tell where the ridge and trough locations finish for the entire month.
 

 

 

 

The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA. 

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.
 

 

[raindancewx]

Wettest month in ABQ since July 2015. Outside chance we set the record for rain for at least the modern measurement site by month end, something like 4.06".

We're at 2.75"+ and plenty more rain is forecast by the end of the month.

1940 and 1997 were the two prior wettest September El Nino months locally, but we've surpassed both.

New Mexico is the land of ENSO, so good to see at least the wet signal now showing up robustly. That said, the wettest Septembers here are often East El Nino setups or Modoki La Nina setups, where E Pac is > W Pac for water temp anomalies at the equator. Sept itself is not correlated strongly for precip to 3.4, so several of the top wet months here are La Ninas.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes

AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November

[GaWx]

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23rd) is right in between those:

[LakePaste25]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.
 

 

It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see. 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening. Normal 60F water is 80F. That's why Charles Darwin chose the area for evolutionary thesis.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range. 

Hope this becomes a theme for the winter. +PNA can really mitigate the Pacific Puke in Canada.

[bluewave]

Another PDO drop as we approach the all-time warmest SSTs this time of year ENE of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see. 

 

 

 

 

5-day Eps average at the end of last night's run agrees.

[GaWx]

The MJO continues to avoid both the IO and the MC for a duration unlike any in recorded history:

 

[GaWx]

 It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 3rd):

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 3rd):

 

 

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

John,

 Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today), the 2nd shade of blue is -1 to -3C (so much of it for 9/28-10/3 could conceivably be closer to the -1C boundary), and this product uses a warmer climo base than most, the last 20 years:

• re-forecasts are derived by re-running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years.

*Edited

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

John,

 Keep in mind that this 2nd shade of blue is -1 to -3C (so much of it could conceivably be closer to the -1C boundary) and this product uses a warmer climo base than most, the last 20 years:

• re-forecasts are derived by re-running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years.

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted.  

I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days.   Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal.  not -1   ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational.  

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

 

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted.  

I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days.   Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal.  not -1   ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational.  

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

 

Thanks.

1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see.

2. Let’s see if today’s update is warmer.

2. You may have not seen my edit:

 “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”