40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 6 hours ago, GaWx said: Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($). This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter. Raindance has stated that -AMO could lead to a cold winter for the country.....I'm not saying there isn't any truth to that, it's just that that site tends to seeks out avenues to cold IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: It’s on discord now if you want the link ill dm it to you Yes, thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That kind of SSTA orientation in the N. Atlantic right now favors a -NAO Winter. We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!! If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19 If I do, I'll let the good Lord he can take me now. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19 What? What was wrong with it? But oy that had to be painful for you guys. But don't worry y'all paid us back time tje following December, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What? What was wrong with it? But oy that had to be painful for you guys. But don't worry y'all paid us back time tje following December, lol No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!! I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period? It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July. Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Where do things stand now, relative to predictions? ahead behind on time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO (neutralish) signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season. I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall. If we can avoid a strongly +NAO/WPO, then we should be okay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Where do things stand now, relative to predictions? ahead behind on time Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record. Yeah, I should’ve said that ”in relation to the models” I am aware of the climate timing. I just am wondering what it means when the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with - this represents certain challenges … perhaps even for the Relative ONI ( I haven’t been paying much attention to this thread and very busy so apologies if this has been dragged through the coals already) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I should’ve said that ”in relation to the models” I am aware of the climate timing. I just am wondering what the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with this is almost challenging for the Relative ONI John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Regard to these linear correlations… That’s backward incompatible then? Seems that way Descending solar would cancel out the very things the El Niño is positively correlated with…. Obviously not the absolute sense. Just sayn’ You only need two big blizzards to make a winner out of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO. Yeah, I’ll give it a read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern. -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… there’s gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong, warm mental event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably involved going thru. It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… Those gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts. I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial. I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 For most of the past decade we've had cold West/warm East setups nationally when the subsurface is warming rapidly. You can sort of see it earlier in the month when it was very cold in the West near the peak of the current subsurface warming burst. I think its pretty likely late winter the subsurface heat will collapse quite rapidly, and so it should get fairly cold/stormy in the East at that point. Whether that's mid-Jan, mid-Feb, or mid-Mar makes all the difference. The first bit of research I ever did on El Nino was regarding March heavy snows locally. From 1931 to 2014, we never had any March with over 3-4 inches of snow in low-solar conditions and without El Nino. The last high solar El Nino March was 2014-15, and we had...9.6 inches of snow on Feb 26-28, with the mountains getting 50-100 inches in five days in late Feb/early March. 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20 were not high solar, and failed on the heavy March snow, and then 2023-24 failed as well (although honestly, March 2023 was more El Nino-ish by the subsurface +0.84 v. --0.54 in March 2024 and it snowed quite a bit in March 2023 throughout the Southwest. Remember the blizzard warnings in San Diego County?) If we get a warm subsurface and high solar in March 2027, I'll be on the lookout for blizzard/heavy snow risks throughout the Southwest. It used to happen in almost every high solar El Nino March. But recent El Ninos have either died too early or lacked high solar. We've had up to 14 inches of snow in March here, but never more than 3.5 in a non-high solar March, its literally 10x more common to get heavy March snow here with v. without it (>3", since average is 1.5" last century, and under 1.0" past 30 years). Mar-Apr 1973 locally had over 22 inches of snow, following only 15 inches in Oct-Feb, its the best winter here after 1914-15. My guess is the WPO/PNA/EPO/NAO/AO will all be pretty volatile compared to traditional expectations if the warmth is far enough east and warm enough by magnitude relative to position. I'd really like to see what 30.0C+ waters in Nino 3/3.4 or even 1.2 would do honestly. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December. I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45. Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07). In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events. Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 maybe northeastern backyards will get a ku 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 “The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point: “+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent. A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause. The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts. Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback. However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.” ^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now