2026-2027 El Nino

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The more central-based super warm ENSO of 2015 triggered the development of the warm pool, just as I believe a super-eastern biased El Nino would eradicate it.

Oh no. That means if we get central based event this year it will reinforce the warm pool for the next 40 years. Snowman19 will be posting tweets from Andy Hazelton’s grandkids talking about a SE ridge in 2066. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's. 

That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward.

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%. 

Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina.

The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward.

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall.

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak. 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So 2.0 RONI and 2.5 ONI....not good.

I'll go torch if that remains consistent. I would rather see the RONI higher.

Bias corrected numbers found here are around .5C cooler.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[raindancewx]

If you look at March 2026, it was very +NAO, very -WPO, transitioning La Nina-->El Nino.

The blend is closest in magnitude to 1986, 2014, and directly opposite March 1980, 2010 for all three factors.

Been decent for March & April so far for a very simple conceptual match, although 2026 has been more extreme.

March: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010

April: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 - might be decent by month end.

Both the super -WPO and super +NAO in March support a pretty cold West in December. The maps are correlation based so +NAO green = warm, blue cold, -WPO green = cold, blue = warm. The 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 blend is almost identical to the -WPO blend.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina.

The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

We did have that....we went from a super El Niño to a weak La Niña....that is a large swing to the opposite ENSO state.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part. 

Classic Chuck...  Love you, mean it...your work is great...but your default go-to when the data doesn't illustrate what you theorize that it should is "give it another few centuries, and it will work". Well, perhaps my great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren can dig you up and capitulate, but for now, there is in fact a correlation there. It makes sense because the mechanisms that drive ENSO are self-destructive, which is what perpetuates the cycle. 

I wrote about almost a decade ago.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/delayed-oscillation-and-newtons-third.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

If you look at March 2026, it was very +NAO, very -WPO, transitioning La Nina-->El Nino.

The blend is closest in magnitude to 1986, 2014, and directly opposite March 1980, 2010 for all three factors.

Been decent for March & April so far for a very simple conceptual match, although 2026 has been more extreme.

March: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010

April: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 - might be decent by month end.

Both the super -WPO and super +NAO in March support a pretty cold West in December. The maps are correlation based so +NAO green = warm, blue cold, -WPO green = cold, blue = warm. The 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 blend is almost identical to the -WPO blend.

 

Good work....backs up @Stormchaserchuck1's research on +QBO warm ENSO being a torch in the east....but I'll bet it's an ice box in the east if you check back in about 337 years or so- 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak. 

I agree....I could totally see a weak-neutralish +PDO. Just saying I don't think we are going to do 2023/1972 again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina.

The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

Well, we won't have the frequency of strong cool ENSO events.....no Uber-strong events. It's the strongest events that are most likely to trigger the opposite phase.

[raindancewx]

Chuck is right, the tendencies you base your ideas on are so small that its not even likely to be causal - its just noise. You literally can't even compare 30 El Ninos in 100 years to 30 La Ninas with reliable outputs because the groups are so small, one of 30 event behaving differently changes the outcome by 3% - that's massive. Saying the events are self destructive is kind of idiotic when the Neutrals are behaviorally very similar to very weak La Ninas. In that sense, the 2/3 scenario is..."Not El Nino", not 'self destruction'. Most La Ninas are actually not followed by El Ninos. Just look at the past 30 years: 1998 - no, 1999 - no, 2000 - no, 2007 - no, 2010 - no, 2011 - no, 2016 - no, 2020 - no, 2021 - no, 2024 - no. Only 2005, 2008, 2017, 2022, 2025 are. Its 2:1 against "self-destruction". If it favored self-destruction it'd be 2:1 the other way. El Ninos are similar too - 2002, 2003, 2014, 2018 were all followed by El Nino/near El Nino, only 2006, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 were not. That's basically dead even for 25 years not exactly assuring "self destruction" like you're implying. You're just fixated on noise

 

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bring it...I welcome that....I know it will also mean warmth, but I'm sick of the drier winters.

You might be able to get another monster despite a very warm winter a la 2016

[jconsor]

On 4/11/2026 at 1:18 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What I find interesting about the global average temperature, is that it has gone exponential, when mostly La Nina's have occurred since 1998. 

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. 

More than 50% of years have been La Nina since 1998. Had it been 33-33-33, global average temperature would have been higher over that time! The quick re-hit of Strong El Nino this year is going to push us back closer to the long term Neutral ENSO mark. 

Nice points.  I agree - the lean toward La Ninas has acted as at least a slight brake on the global temp rise over the past three decades.

Global temp anomalies past 10 years or so have increased more rapidly in the extratropics than the tropics.  See this post from Dr. Joseph Fournier: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_following-the-15-year-great-hiatus-2000-activity-7449541780481654784-8jWQ?

The attached graph is from the same post and is generated using satellite temperature estimates.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Chuck is right, the tendencies you base your ideas on are so small that its not even likely to be causal - its just noise. You literally can't even compare 30 El Ninos in 100 years to 30 La Ninas with reliable outputs because the groups are so small, one of 30 event behaving differently changes the outcome by 3% - that's massive. Saying the events are self destructive is kind of idiotic when the Neutrals are behaviorally very similar to very weak La Ninas. In that sense, the 2/3 scenario is..."Not El Nino", not 'self destruction'. Most La Ninas are actually not followed by El Ninos. Just look at the past 30 years: 1998 - no, 1999 - no, 2000 - no, 2007 - no, 2010 - no, 2011 - no, 2016 - no, 2020 - no, 2021 - no, 2024 - no. Only 2005, 2008, 2017, 2022, 2025 are. Its 2:1 against "self-destruction". If it favored self-destruction it'd be 2:1 the other way. El Ninos are similar too - 2002, 2003, 2014, 2018 were all followed by El Nino/near El Nino, only 2006, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 were not. That's basically dead even for 25 years not exactly assuring "self destruction" like you're implying. You're just fixated on noise

 

What is idiotic is your inability to wrap your mind around the fact that it works for the strongest of events. Weaker events are much more variable and cool ENSO doesn't get as strong; I have already stated that. Assuming we peak over 2.0 during the coming El Nino, I will bet you an idiotic $100 right now that 2027-2028 is yet another cool ENSO. Should be something akin to taking the proverbial candy from a baby for you, right??

I get what you are saying about the sample size being inadequate in the grand scope of time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the relationship doesn't exist. You can pull sample size on any relationship or correlation with respect to the weather because all of our sample sizes are inadequate. We have been keeping records for such a small fraction of time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic". 

[snowman19]

An extreme +PMM has developed:
 

 

@40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog

Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An extreme +PMM has developed:
 

 

@40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog

Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

 

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.