2026-2027 El Nino

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago.

Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month. 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. 

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however. 

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record.

All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. 

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 This tweet is deceptive. I’m surprised the smart pro met. Ethan said this. Of course the SSTs are significantly warmer than 29 years ago due to GW. But you know that the measure of Nino strength isn’t SST but rather SSTa.

 Relative SSTa:

02APR1997         1.1       -0.3        0.1        1.1

01APR2026         0.6       -0.3       -0.2        0.3
 

 So, per relative anomalies, not only is 2026 not warmer than 1997, it is 0.5 cooler in 1+2, 0.3 cooler in 3.4, and 0.8 cooler in 4! 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 

 @mitchnick

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

15/16 was the last strong Niño, which is why I used it. But your observation supports the idea that you need a lot of things to go right to get a strong Niño and a warm start helps a lot. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.)

From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023.

1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago.

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/8/2026 at 7:52 AM, bluewave said:

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta as a positive for winter enthusiasts.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

The 4/23 ONI fcasts: BoM much too warm and Euro/CFS/UK somewhat too warm. Actual JAS +1.37

1. BoM: +2.17 for JAS or 0.80 too warm

2. Euro: +1.57 for JAS or 0.20 too warm

3. CFSv2: +1.56 for JAS or 0.19 too warm

4. UKMET: +1.58 for JAS or 0.21 too warm

 OTOH, the avg of all 17 dynamicals was +1.33, which was almost perfect.

ONI history:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

4/23 ONI forecasts: 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

[GaWx]

Nov: NMME is warmer than its prior run and much more E based than Cansips Modoki:

Nov SSTa NMME latest run:

 

Nov SSTa NMME prior run:

 

Nov SSTa Cansips

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/6/2026 at 10:20 AM, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……

[bluewave]

On 4/8/2026 at 8:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta is a positive for winter enthusaists.

Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking.

If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite with deep troughs.

Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold, then at least the Aleutian Low and maybe the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements.

Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking.

If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite with deep troughs.

Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold, then at least the Aleutian Low and maybe the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements.

Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations.

 

 

 

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

We just don’t want a repeat of the west based -WPO like we had in March which could allow too much of a +EPO Aleutian low position with El Niño forcing.

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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As impressive as the southwestern U.S. mega-ridge was in March, the eastern Siberia mega-ridge was even more anomalous!

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just don’t want a repeat of the west based -WPO like we had in March which could allow too much of a +EPO Aleutian low position with El Niño forcing.

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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As impressive as the southwestern U.S. mega-ridge was in March, the eastern Siberia mega-ridge was even more anomalous!

 

 

 

Yea, subtle shift with the "angle of the dangle" of that vortex, and whole new pattern. It was not only the -WPO ridge shifting east, but the /AONAO blocking dissipated, so we got the dreaded elongation of the "football" shaped PV.