2026-2027 El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD

What about +PDO?

[roardog]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening
 

You have to be searching for these types of tweets. There's no way you follow all of these people I've never heard of. lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces

Nino 4 is warming

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite

April

May

March to May

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. 

Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a  1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days.

It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure.

But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98.

Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. 

Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Ninas? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces

Nino 4 is warming

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome.

I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern.  
 

 

 

Nothing is a very good metric for measuring anything if the index is going to be taken at face value without an understanding of what the number is trying to convey. It harkens back to what we discussed regarding WHY the RONI lagged the ONI that season.....the weaker hemispheric expression was due to the antecedent cool ENSO configuration of of the hemisphere partially masking it, which was also reflected by the -PDO. It was very similar to the 1972-1973 in that sense. This is also why the degree of warmth across the NE that winter was still redolent of a higher end el Nino.

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Things that make ya go "hmmm".....

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing is a very good metric for measuring anything if the index is going to be taken at face value without an understanding of what the number is trying to convey. It harkens back to what we discussed regarding WHY the RONI lagged the ONI that season.....the weaker hemispheric expression was due to the antecedent cool ENSO configuration of of the hemisphere partially masking it, which was also reflected by the -PDO. It was very similar to the 1972-1973 in that sense. This is also why the degree of warmth across the NE that winter was still redolent of a higher end el Nino.

 

The atmospheric response in 23-24 was a full super El Niño when viewed through the intensity and location of the 500mb ridge in North America and warmth along the Northern Tier. The troughs across the South and East along with the Aleutian low were much weaker than we typically see with stronger El Niños.

It’s a similar effect to what we have seen the last two winters with the ridges becoming more expansive than 13-14 and 14-15 leading to a much smaller trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast So we didn’t get the magnitude of the cold or snow experienced during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters during 24-25 and 25-26.

Goes to the shrinking Northern Hemisphere cold pool relative to similar teleconnections during the past. 

So metrics like ONI, RONI, and PDO need to be filtered through this newer expression of the ridges and troughs to arrive at the sensible weather. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. 

Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Nina's? 

I don't think these are mutually exclusive. It was warm for a couple of different reasons. 1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that was a accompanied by somewhat of a -WPO, which may help to explain why it's the only one to have featured decent snowfall throughout the NE.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a  1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days.

It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure.

But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98.

Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmospheric response in 23-24 was a full super El Niño when viewed through the intensity and location of the 500mb ridges and warmth along the Northern Tier. The troughs were much weaker than we typically see with stronger El Niños.

It’s a similar effect to what we have seen the last two winters with the ridges becoming more expansive than 13-14 and 14-15 leading to a much smaller trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast So we didn’t get the magnitude of the cold or snow experienced during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters during 24-25 and 25-26.

Goes to the shrinking Northern Hemisphere cold pool relative to similar teleconnections during the past. 

So metrics like ONI, RONI, and PDO need to be filtered through this newer expression of the ridges and troughs to arrive at the sensible weather. 

Well, obviously the globe has continued to warm over the past 11-12 years, but you are also neglecting to mention that winter 2024-2025 featured a strongly +WPO. This past season had a strongly -WPO, as did 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, and what do you know...the snowfall showed up. Obviously not to the extent of the 100" in 30 days like 2015, but I think we all understand that that has a very low return rate, regardless of CC. I know there was a school of thought that this +WPO regime would be permanent as a result of the warmth in the western Pacific, but this past season clearly validated those of us that have maintained that these oscillations will remain cyclical in nature.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Personally, I wasn't shocked that 2024-2025 didn't produce in terms of snowfall...my forecast totals were pretty damned accurate, as they were this past season.

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously the globe has continued to warm over the past 11-12 years, but you are also neglecting to mention that winter 2024-2025 featured a strongly +WPO. This past season had a strongly -WPO, as did 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, and what do you know...the snowfall showed up. Obviously not to the extent of the 100" in 30 days like 2015, but I think we all understand that that has a very low return rate, regardless of CC. I know there was a school of thought that this +WPO regime would be permanent as a result of the warmth in the western Pacific, but this past season clearly validated those of us that have maintained that these oscillations will remain cyclical in nature.

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool.

YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto!

Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard.

I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.

[GaWx]

 Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time.

 Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs?

 Opinions?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. That's why the RONI is being used. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern) - The N. pacific high was not that effected in 23-24. 

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time.

 Opinions?

He’s saying it caused the MJO to be in phases that you wouldn’t normally expect during a very strong Nino. This is kind of what people on here have been saying just in a different way. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year. This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 

The PDO is a 50/50 index, half warm vs half cold or visa-versa. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Winter 23-24 did act like a Super Nino in terms of precip. although November was dry

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think these are mutually exclusive. It was warm for a couple of different reasons. 1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that was a accompanied by somewhat of a -WPO, which may help to explain why it's the only one to have featured decent snowfall throughout the NE.

 

I see what you're saying.. for some reason I thought Nino was more +PDO-like, with a ridge overtop the N. pacific trough. I think in the 1895-1950 dataset they are a little more neutral or negative EPO/WPO

[LakePaste25]

On 3/23/2026 at 3:34 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't he calling for one a couple years ago? That being said it did finish in strong territory just not super, lol

23-24 reached super criteria based off of traditional ONI, which peaked at +2.1C for NDJ. Using the new RONI however, it peaked at moderate to strong.

[LakePaste25]

One thing about using RONI vs. ONI is you have to be consistent. If you’re going to use RONI to say that the Nino isn’t going to be as strong, you also need to say that 24-25 and 25-26 were weak to moderate Nina’s, not neutral. 

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome.

I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

2002-03 like would definitely be an interesting outcome!