2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The subsurface has warmed significantly over the past few months. That's +4c in the central-ENSO-subsurface. 

TAO/Triton is a little more conservative in their readings than CPC, and it still has a >+4c area in the western subsurface

I went through, since data became available in 1985, and found the 10 top analogs to broad subsurface state in January-February, like we have now. There are 5 positive analogs, 5 negative analogs. It should be noted that a lot of analogs had a warm/cold western part vs a cold/warm eastern part, in contrast, and I didn't use those, I only did the whole subsurface based warm or cold. 

Jan-Feb 2026 so far

-1) 2025 -- This later in the year was ENSO Neutral (0-1-0), with the ONI peaking at -0.5c, but not for 5 consecutive months. The RONI in 26-27 was Weak-La Nina, -1.0c

+1) 2023 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (1-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.1c, RONI peaking at +1.5c

+2) 2015 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (2-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.8c! RONI peaking at +2.4c

+3) 2014 -- This later was a Weak El Nino (3-1-0), ONI peaking at +0.8c, RONI peaking at +0.6c

-2) 2007 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (4-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.6c. RONI peaking at -1.6c

+4) 2002 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (5-1-0), ONI peaking at +1.3c. RONI peaking at +1.5c

-3) 1999 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (6-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.7c. RONI peaking at -1.7c

+5) 1998 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (7-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.4c. RONI peaking at +2.4c

-4) 1994 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (7-1-1), ONI peaking at +1.1c. RONI peaking at +1.4c

-5) 1988 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (8-1-1), ONI peaking at -1.8c. RONI peaking at -1.9c

So out of the hand-picked 10 best analogs of the past 40 years, 8/10 (80%) became the same ENSO state (warm subsurface to El Nino, cold subsurface to La Nina), 1/10 (10%) was Neutral the next year, and 1/10 (10%) was opposite. The total cumulative ONI peak for the 10 top analogs since 1985, was +13.9c, an average of +1.39c per year (Moderate ENSO state). 

CPC in January gave these probabilities

I now see the RONI is linked on the CPC page. Very good! (Edited analogs above -- the RONI is good because it neutralizes the global warming skew, where ENSO has warmed on average about 0.2-0.3c vs historical)

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Mid January IRI models forecast. I will edit these if someone links more recent forecasts. 

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. 

You can see this post-1998 general La Nina pattern clearly in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's Hadley Cell, High pressure right above and below Nino 3.4:

^People say it's a decadal PDO state, I think it's a decadal cold-ENSO state. That map encompasses the most recent 333 months. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a time sensitive ENSO subsurface anomaly map, and 5-day subsurface temperature trend. It will always be updated to the most recent day. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.

1988 does appear to be a good anti-analog. This is my favorite La Nina, because it was independent, strong on its own, it wasn't part of a 2 or 3 year phase. I think you see La Nina effects better in analogs such as 88-89. We did have 2 El Nino's 2 years before, which inversely matches the RONI 2 La Nina's of the last 2 years. Jan-Feb 1988 was also the most subsurface cold water anomaly of the analogs. This matches this year being one of the warmest subsurface anomalies (whole subsurface area). 

Also to note, although the subsurface analog matches give off a strong signal (80% going in the direction later in the year), I think it's inflated a little high, because there are only 10 examples. More reasonable is probably 60% odds, based on the subsurface. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html

I favor the warmer February outcome of the GFS suite over the EURO.

[michaeljames]

It will be interesting to see how the models evolve as we get closer to 2026 and 2027. Right now, long range El Nino forecasts can change a lot with new ocean and atmospheric data. Watching sea surface temperature trends and trade wind patterns over the next year should give a clearer picture.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Interesting that they have such high El Nino probabilities, using RONI. For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). That means they are predicting a Moderate El Nino [ONI] by September. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year:

This Winter (25-26) so far:

DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino:

Winter 25-26 so far:

And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. 

The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. 

Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like?

^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples:

So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought. 

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year:

This Winter (25-26) so far:

DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino:

Winter 25-26 so far:

And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. 

The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. 

Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like?

^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples:

So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought. 

I’m not sure the preceding two winters being cold really have anything to do with it, does it? It could just be that an El Niño is typically mild where the map is mild and would look that way even if the two preceding winters were mild. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’m not sure the preceding two winters being cold really have anything to do with it, does it? It could just be that an El Niño is typically mild where the map is mild and would look that way even if the two preceding winters were mild. 

It's a slight statistical anomaly, but there is no signal on the 3rd Winter going either way, besides what is normal for El Nino. 2 years of cold and dry maybe begets a drier El Nino. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PDO numbers this decade.. 73 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? 

January 2026	-1.19
December 2025	-0.98
November 2025	-1.51
October 2025	-2.37
September 2025	-2.31
August 2025	-3.23
July 2025	-4.21
June 2025	-2.64
May 2025	-1.66
April 2025	-1.15
March 2025	-1.12
February 2025	-1.40
January 2025	-1.29
December 2024	-2.03
November 2024	-3.13
October 2024	-3.80
September 2024	-3.56
August 2024	-2.91
July 2024	-3.01
June 2024	-3.15
May 2024	-2.98
April 2024	-2.11
March 2024	-1.54
February 2024	-1.34
January 2024	-1.57
December 2023	-1.66
November 2023	-1.79
October 2023	-2.23
September 2023	-2.99
August 2023	-2.48
July 2023	-2.54
June 2023	-2.55
May 2023	-2.41
April 2023	-3.08
March 2023	-2.45
February 2023	-1.65
January 2023	-1.24
December 2022	-2.21
November 2022	-2.40
October 2022	-1.81
September 2022	-2.28
August 2022	-2.38
July 2022	-2.63
June 2022	-1.31
May 2022	-2.23
April 2022	-2.09
March 2022	-1.67
February 2022	-1.91
January 2022	-2.40
December 2021	-2.71
November 2021	-2.75
October 2021	-3.14
September 2021	-1.96
August 2021	-0.95
July 2021	-2.00
June 2021	-1.82
May 2021	-2.04
April 2021	-1.84
March 2021	-1.67
February 2021	-1.09
January 2021	-0.61
December 2020	-0.98
November 2020	-1.58
October 2020	-0.62
September 2020	-1.04
August 2020	-1.33
July 2020	-0.92
June 2020	-0.75
May 2020	-0.52
April 2020	-1.32
March 2020	-1.75
February 2020	-1.48
January 2020	-1.41

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24

La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I have found something interesting, since the 2012, N. Hemisphere Arctic ice melt low, the Summer sea-level pressure state has been reversing the following Winter. In the 2025-2026 ENSO thread, I used this to predict a -AO for Winter 25-26. 

Here was May-Sept 2025 SLP anomaly:

Analogs [10]

Following Winter of 10 analogs (+7 months)

Winter 25-26 so far:

Something to watch this coming warm season... do we get -SLP or +SLP anomaly over the Arctic (60-90N). Since 2012, -SLP has been followed by following cold season -AO, and +SLP has been followed by following cold season +AO, just about every time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

QBO information, near real-time

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)

January 2026 was the 2nd lowest 30mb QBO Jan on record, 2015 was number 1: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

It will likely reverse to +QBO for Winter 26-27. It has a cold season Stratosphere polar vortex correlation, stronger stratosphere polar vortex is +QBO, weaker SPV is -QBO. 

[BlizzardWx]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PDO numbers this decade.. 73 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? 

January 2026	-1.19
December 2025	-0.98
November 2025	-1.51
October 2025	-2.37
September 2025	-2.31
August 2025	-3.23
July 2025	-4.21
June 2025	-2.64
May 2025	-1.66
April 2025	-1.15
March 2025	-1.12
February 2025	-1.40
January 2025	-1.29
December 2024	-2.03
November 2024	-3.13
October 2024	-3.80
September 2024	-3.56
August 2024	-2.91
July 2024	-3.01
June 2024	-3.15
May 2024	-2.98
April 2024	-2.11
March 2024	-1.54
February 2024	-1.34
January 2024	-1.57
December 2023	-1.66
November 2023	-1.79
October 2023	-2.23
September 2023	-2.99
August 2023	-2.48
July 2023	-2.54
June 2023	-2.55
May 2023	-2.41
April 2023	-3.08
March 2023	-2.45
February 2023	-1.65
January 2023	-1.24
December 2022	-2.21
November 2022	-2.40
October 2022	-1.81
September 2022	-2.28
August 2022	-2.38
July 2022	-2.63
June 2022	-1.31
May 2022	-2.23
April 2022	-2.09
March 2022	-1.67
February 2022	-1.91
January 2022	-2.40
December 2021	-2.71
November 2021	-2.75
October 2021	-3.14
September 2021	-1.96
August 2021	-0.95
July 2021	-2.00
June 2021	-1.82
May 2021	-2.04
April 2021	-1.84
March 2021	-1.67
February 2021	-1.09
January 2021	-0.61
December 2020	-0.98
November 2020	-1.58
October 2020	-0.62
September 2020	-1.04
August 2020	-1.33
July 2020	-0.92
June 2020	-0.75
May 2020	-0.52
April 2020	-1.32
March 2020	-1.75
February 2020	-1.48
January 2020	-1.41

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24

La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

By my calculations, PDO is around -0.25 now. So yeah, I'd say we got a chance to finally break this.