2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The subsurface has warmed significantly over the past few months. That's +4c in the central-ENSO-subsurface. 

TAO/Triton is a little more conservative in their readings than CPC, and it still has a >+4c area in the western subsurface

I went through, since data became available in 1985, and found the 10 top analogs to broad subsurface state in January-February, like we have now. There are 5 positive analogs, 5 negative analogs. It should be noted that a lot of analogs had a warm/cold western part vs a cold/warm eastern part, in contrast, and I didn't use those, I only did the whole subsurface based warm or cold. 

Jan-Feb 2026 so far

-1) 2025 -- This later in the year was ENSO Neutral (0-1-0), with the ONI peaking at -0.5c, but not for 5 consecutive months. The RONI in 26-27 was Weak-La Nina, -1.0c

+1) 2023 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (1-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.1c, RONI peaking at +1.5c

+2) 2015 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (2-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.8c! RONI peaking at +2.4c

+3) 2014 -- This later was a Weak El Nino (3-1-0), ONI peaking at +0.8c, RONI peaking at +0.6c

-2) 2007 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (4-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.6c. RONI peaking at -1.6c

+4) 2002 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (5-1-0), ONI peaking at +1.3c. RONI peaking at +1.5c

-3) 1999 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (6-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.7c. RONI peaking at -1.7c

+5) 1998 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (7-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.4c. RONI peaking at +2.4c

-4) 1994 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (7-1-1), ONI peaking at +1.1c. RONI peaking at +1.4c

-5) 1988 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (8-1-1), ONI peaking at -1.8c. RONI peaking at -1.9c

So out of the hand-picked 10 best analogs of the past 40 years, 8/10 (80%) became the same ENSO state (warm subsurface to El Nino, cold subsurface to La Nina), 1/10 (10%) was Neutral the next year, and 1/10 (10%) was opposite. The total cumulative ONI peak for the 10 top analogs since 1985, was +13.9c, an average of +1.39c per year (Moderate ENSO state). 

CPC in January gave these probabilities

I now see the RONI is linked on the CPC page. Very good! (Edited analogs above -- the RONI is good because it neutralizes the global warming skew, where ENSO has warmed on average about 0.2-0.3c vs historical)

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Mid January IRI models forecast. I will edit these if someone links more recent forecasts. 

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. 

You can see this post-1998 general La Nina pattern clearly in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's Hadley Cell, High pressure right above and below Nino 3.4:

^People say it's a decadal PDO state, I think it's a decadal cold-ENSO state. That map encompasses the most recent 333 months. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a time sensitive ENSO subsurface anomaly map, and 5-day subsurface temperature trend. It will always be updated to the most recent day. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.

1988 does appear to be a good anti-analog. This my favorite La Nina, because it was independent, strong on its own, it wasn't part of a 2 or 3 year phase. I think you see La Nina effects better in analogs such as 88-89. We did have 2 El Nino's 2 years before, which inversely matches the RONI 2 La Nina's of the last 2 years. Jan-Feb 1988 was also the most subsurface cold water anomaly of the analogs. This matches this year being one of the warmest subsurface anomalies (whole subsurface area). 

Also to note, although the subsurface analog matches give off a strong signal (80% going in the direction later in the year), I think it's inflated a little high, because there are only 10 examples. More reasonable is probably 60% odds, based on the subsurface. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html

I favor the warmer February outcome of the GFS suite over the EURO.