Predict the cold contest (for Feb 7-9)

[Roger Smith]

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. 

I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. 

Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days.

Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late).  My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. 

If you do edit your post, kindly indicate a time (EST or z) when you last did that, for order of entry considerations. I won't otherwise know you've edited your entry.

Your template if you want to use it

MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___"

Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry.

MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). 

but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. 

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). 

Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. 

___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. 

I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. 

Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days.

Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late).  My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. 

Your template if you want to use it

MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___"

Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry.

MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). 

but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. 

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). 

Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. 

___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total. 

MAX 17F ... MIN  6F ... SNOW  0.2"

[coastalplainsnowman]

Some day we should do Super Bowl - type boxes with Max Temp and Min Temp on the axes.

Could do it on Super Bowl Sunday itself.

Split the day into quarters.

Max and Min temp between  Midnight to 6AM, 6:01 - Noon, 12:01 PM - 6PM, and 6:01PM to Midnight.

 

Anyway, 19 / 9 with 0.75” snow

[SACRUS]

 

Max 20f ... Min 5f ... Snow : 0.4

[[email protected]]

Max 20, Min 9.

[Prue11]

Max 21 

min 9

snow trace 

[IYC77]

Max 18
Min 7
Snow 0.8

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

[NorthShoreWx]

 

Max 16⁰ ... Min 6⁰ ... Snow : 0.4"

[wxallannj]

Max 21   min 8     Snow:  0.2"

[TriPol]

Max 18f ... Min -1f ... Snow : 1.3"

[dmillz25]

Max- 19

Min- 5

Snow-0.7”

[Stormlover74]

Max 19

Min 7

Snow .4

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Max 17°

Min   3°

Snow 1.4 inches