Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:37 AM The 12z Canadian is a slightly inland runner or coastal hugger depending on your perspective. Worth watching. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:41 AM The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted yesterday at 10:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:42 AM TennesseeWx peeps are throwing the towel on winter and posting their grades already. I'm still a month away from doing any sort of recap. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:43 AM The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:48 AM Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM The 12z GEM brings that to right at 960 as it runs it up the coast. Look at the sustained winds and gusts. That is hurricane force. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:57 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:57 AM The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM I believe the UKIE is very inland and too warm for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 11:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:08 AM 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe the UKIE is very inland and too warm for us. Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted yesterday at 11:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:12 AM AIFS is on board from northeast Tennessee and points north and east. Upper Plateau would still need more help. Euro gins it up farther east, but I think it tried that with Giannis. While I don't see Chattanooga involved this time, I'm hoping for something like the GFS (or overall blend). Still need to get some ski runs in up at elevation. WPC has minor impacts probs already for Sunday and Monday. I like the same areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 11:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:12 AM 12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted yesterday at 11:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:26 AM 37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility. woah. Outlier for sure but that's a money shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 11:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:30 AM I started to pull the trigger on my thoughts irt this Storm yesterday but felt so bad I just couldn't. Besides, really needed another day with those Thoughts, lol. This may be similar to the December '92 Storm. Big Storm just North and NE of us. We did manage a few sloppy inches from backlash in Northeastern Sections of the Great Valley. Man, that GEM Depiction makes me salivate. That's a Blizzard for the MA and NE and not far from it here. I'd be jumping for joy in the MA now. It's looking grand for them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted yesterday at 11:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:54 AM Last night's 0z Euro Ai run was very similiar to Cmc today, I was pretty disappointed to look at the 6z this a.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 01:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:01 PM The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted yesterday at 01:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 PM Need the plateau to score just once before spring arrives. A 4-6" pure snow event would be icing on the cake. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago It's still just a rampaging blizzard at Mammoth today. Today was supposed to be a light snow day, with only 9 inches on the mountain. They are probably close to 70 inches at this point with 2 or so more feet coming tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Im still hopeful we can get a March snow event. We have had our biggest snows ever in March in our area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago TennesseeWx peeps are throwing the towel on winter and posting their grades already. I'm still a month away from doing any sort of recap. March 2025 would like a word with them . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Im still hopeful we can get a March snow event. We have had our biggest snows ever in March in our area.I might be wrong, but I believe our biggest snow ever in the Knoxville area was in November, however, just about all of our biggest snowstorms have been in March. That makes sense though considering that’s about the best moisture return month you’re going to get before it gets too warm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago A friends daughter went to Tahoe yesterday for a ski trip. It's apparently been awful so far. They couldn't reach their original air bnb, so got another, while working that out, their rental car got buried by a snow plow to the point they had to walk through a bilzzard to their new location. She said it has snowed almost 3 feet since they got there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 hours ago, GBOVolz said: I might be wrong, but I believe our biggest snow ever in the Knoxville area was in November, however, just about all of our biggest snowstorms have been in March. That makes sense though considering that’s about the best moisture return month you’re going to get before it gets too warm. . March and then November historically. Early December has as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Snow has entered my forecast zone from MRX for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 hours ago, John1122 said: A friends daughter went to Tahoe yesterday for a ski trip. It's apparently been awful so far. They couldn't reach their original air bnb, so got another, while working that out, their rental car got buried by a snow plow to the point they had to walk through a bilzzard to their new location. She said it has snowed almost 3 feet since they got there. My daughter works for a ski school outside of Ogden, Utah, and they have not had enough snow to open any slope that does not have man-made snow machines. She has kept her job there this year because it is part-time teaching little ones how to ski. She is a nurse in Ogden. They have never seen so little snow, is how she frames this winter. She said they may have had worse, but not by anyone that she has talked with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 hours ago, John1122 said: A friends daughter went to Tahoe yesterday for a ski trip. It's apparently been awful so far. They couldn't reach their original air bnb, so got another, while working that out, their rental car got buried by a snow plow to the point they had to walk through a bilzzard to their new location. She said it has snowed almost 3 feet since they got there. Sounds wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago She's ticking West on the GFS. Now has measurable (1"+) Snow back to the Plateau. 8-12" Wise to Bluefied. 1-3" Great Valley Locations in NETN /SWVA. 2-8" SEKY. 6-14" TN/NC Border. Blizzard for Northern VA and DC with up to 3 Feet. Alas, it is the GFS... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both. One of the other channels I watch on youtube who does plowing and snow blowing on Mammoth Mountain got had gotten 90 inches at his location as of Wednesday. He got 30 inches in 8 hours Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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