February 2026

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Canadian is a slightly inland runner or coastal hugger depending on your perspective. Worth watching.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days.  The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters.  Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains.  However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.  

[*Flash*]

TennesseeWx peeps are throwing the towel on winter and posting their grades already. I'm still a month away from doing any sort of recap. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum.  The ingredients are there.  I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that.  This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.  

[Carvers Gap]

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN.  Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm.  Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM brings that to right at 960 as it runs it up the coast.  Look at the sustained winds and gusts.  That is hurricane force.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east.  Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength.  Whether we can get in on the action?  IDK.  However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.

[Carvers Gap]

Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas.  And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.

 

[John1122]

I believe the UKIE is very inland and too warm for us.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I believe the UKIE is very inland and too warm for us.

Indeed.  Good catch.  How has that model been this winter?  Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z.  Much bigger and deepening solution.  Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big.  Maybe a late bloomer?  IDK.

[nrgjeff]

AIFS is on board from northeast Tennessee and points north and east. Upper Plateau would still need more help.

Euro gins it up farther east, but I think it tried that with Giannis. While I don't see Chattanooga involved this time, I'm hoping for something like the GFS (or overall blend). Still need to get some ski runs in up at elevation.

WPC has minor impacts probs already for Sunday and Monday. I like the same areas.

[Carvers Gap]

12z scorecard.  UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm.  GEM is money track.  GFS is more of a coastal but close.  ICON is snow showers and light upslope here.  If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

[fountainguy97]

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN.  Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm.  Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.  

 

woah. Outlier for sure but that's a money shot.

[Daniel Boone]

I started to pull the trigger on my thoughts irt this Storm yesterday but felt so bad I just couldn't. Besides, really needed another day with those Thoughts, lol. 

     This may be similar to the December '92 Storm. Big Storm just North and NE of us. We did manage a few sloppy inches from backlash in Northeastern Sections of the Great Valley.

Man, that GEM Depiction makes me salivate. That's a Blizzard for the MA and NE and not far from it here.

I'd be jumping for joy in the MA now. It's looking grand for them .

[Bigbald]

Last night's 0z Euro Ai run was very similiar to Cmc today, I was pretty disappointed to look at the 6z this a.m. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has a slider around 300.  Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week.

As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig.  The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm.  The UKMET is well inland.  I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle.  Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.  

[*Flash*]

Need the plateau to score just once before spring arrives. A 4-6" pure snow event would be icing on the cake.