1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[Greyhound]

What’s that statement……”Upper level low, weatherman’s woe”?


.

[BlunderStorm]

NAM at 60 shows the Newfoundland storm a tick further NE, the plains high a tick further south. Pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is a few millibars lower, over Texas and Louisiana a bit higher. Snow from the dive of the ULL is more widespread. Interesting. Probably not a better solution for most of the sub forum. High might shove things and take away a second area of low pressure. Progression is quicker.

 

Edit: and by 84 we have fujiwara and Jacksonville snow antics. I think besides Carver, BuCoVaWx, and myself everyone came out worse on the Kuchera. Friday at least was stout. Next up, RGEM.

[Bigbald]

Pulling for the 6z RGEM out to 84, it looks to be the best for most everyone in the viewing area.  

[*Flash*]

*Sigh*. 6z NAM giveth, 12z NAM taketh away. 

[BlunderStorm]

RGEM seems to be keeping the plains high location consistent with 6z. Good early signal for the run.

[Vol4Life]

RGEM looks good out to 75

[Reb]

She’s a beaut, Clark 

[Wurbus]

ICON complete whiff, but I trust the RGEM more in this range.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z RGEM is muy bueno.

[Vol4Life]

RGEM shows 2+ from Nashville eastward.  At 84, TYS has 3.5” and it’s still snowing from the plateau eastward

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z RGEM is muy bueno.

It looks like the Low pressure was at or just inside Cape Hatteras at 84 on RGEM

[*Flash*]

Agreed on the RGEM. I honestly didn't think Middle TN would be in this game at all. I take it the UL is cutting further west? 

[fountainguy97]

SREF doesn't follow the NAM so this is likely a feedback issue we see often on long range nam. But even it is a good ETN hit.

RGEM is and has been very good at range in the past. Icon still not playing ball with the coastal but the ULL is a good hit for ETN

[BlunderStorm]

Overall very satisfied with the 12z RGEM. Had high similarity to 6z. Midwest and Midatlantic pressure was a tick high for my liking but other than that I can't complain. Unlike the indecisive NAM the RGEM puts the Carolina coastal low in the drivers seat instead of arguing with a fish low. It's flirting with a spectacular result with the lows progression very patient and the ULL getting warped into Dixie giving the eastern valley from Chatt to Tri snow showers through the runs conclusion.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Overall very satisfied with the 12z RGEM. Had high similarity to 6z. Midwest and Midatlantic pressure was a tick high for my liking but other than that I can't complain. Unlike the indecisive NAM the RGEM puts the Carolina coastal low in the drivers seat instead of arguing with a fish low. It's flirting with a spectacular result with the lows progression very patient and the ULL getting warped into Dixie giving the eastern valley from Chatt to Tri snow showers through the runs conclusion.

Yep that's how you get that second moisture push from the coastal. Great outcome.

[fountainguy97]

You can't see it on most sites but COD Weather has amazing precipitation tables for NW stuff. Here on the 12z NAM is was about to push some heavy NW moisture into the region. It was going to be a similar outcome to RGEM although different driving factors.

[Tucker1027]

I’ll take an inch out of this thing…


.

[fountainguy97]

Man a great west trend for TN this 12z suite so far. CMC also further west

[Bigbald]

Gfs making the internets head explode, man if it is off its rocker it is becoming a public liability ha.

[tnweathernut]

32 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I’ll take an inch out of this thing…


.

GFS with a tip of the cap to you here at 12z.  Kuchera is 1.0 on the dot.  lol

[tjgrogan]

Does it look like it will move westward enough so East Tennessee will get a decent amount of snow?

[tnweathernut]

12Z GFS AI blitzes east TN with a lot of moisture.  Would be around 2-3" for the midstate, 4-8" plateau east, and 6-10" northeast TN......... Mountains a foot+

[BlunderStorm]

GFS and Canadian are aligned for the most part both solid outcomes. We can only hope the Euro stands in agreement and does not echo ICON. I will say though, if you are west or south of Knoxville you like the Canadian (more accommodating setup), if you are north or east of Knoxville you like the GFS (more moisture).

[Tucker1027]

We need to hold on to these trends till 12z tomorrow. 

[bearman]

Oh, my it sounds like we are in the same place we are always in two days from a storm.  No one knows if we are going to get zip or if we are going to get a good dry powder dump. i remember back in 93 living in Chattanooga, and we had a meteorologist that I really liked, Neal Pascal.  We had been told for the most part we were going to have a big storm for a week.  I had a friend from Fla that had never been in a real snow, and he wanted it to happen so bad.  Then right before the storm hit Neal did or said something on one of his updates right before the storm that gave the impression that it was not going to be all that bad, and some might not get much at all. It was such a gut punch that we took off up to the skyway down near Tellico.  Bad decision.  We barely made it home that evening.  I just can not imagine living somewhere that when snow is forecast you can count on it.

[BlunderStorm]

The 12z GEFS mean total snow 10:1 regressed slightly from 06z to its 0z look. Still looks good.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

Oh, my it sounds like we are in the same place we are always in two days from a storm.  No one knows if we are going to get zip or if we are going to get a good dry powder dump. i remember back in 93 living in Chattanooga, and we had a meteorologist that I really liked, Neal Pascal.  We had been told for the most part we were going to have a big storm for a week.  I had a friend from Fla that had never been in a real snow, and he wanted it to happen so bad.  Then right before the storm hit Neal did or said something on one of his updates right before the storm that gave the impression that it was not going to be all that bad, and some might not get much at all. It was such a gut punch that we took off up to the skyway down near Tellico.  Bad decision.  We barely made it home that evening.  I just can not imagine living somewhere that when snow is forecast you can count on it.

Alot of folks thought that...will never forget riding in National Guard tracked APC's to the state line the next day to rescue hikers. Was no road, driver had to be guided by spotter looking out the roof hatch.

[bearman]

I know it does not mean much, but it is nice seeing the broad Weather map from The weather prediction center showing at least parts of East TN in the heavy snow possibility/. Morristown must not be buying it, at least not yet..  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

I know it does not mean much, but it is nice seeing the broad Weather map from The weather prediction center showing at least parts of East TN in the heavy snow possibility/. Morristown must not be buying it, at least not yet..  

That is a pretty look for sure. 

[housemtnTN]

Looks like knox co. Just barely squeezes into that heavy snow zone lol.