The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

"Everything I don't like is an outlier" not great analysis imo

I mean there is a tigjt group, then there is a spread of other results 

[wxdude64]

11 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County?  100:1 ratios?  Lol 

I asked the same earlier. Mine was 4.3 on 0.10. Yours is even worse, or the driest snow ever. 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

All due respect - what features are you looking at @ hr30 to get you to that conclusion? Seems a bit early.

The bit of vort near Winnipeg. Further west and more amped/slower have ended up with good solutions so far.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

All due respect - what features are you looking at @ hr30 to get you to that conclusion? Seems a bit early.

I couldn't tell anything at that hour. 42 lobe is def a bit west of 18z. But obv we aren't at the money panels yet.

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I couldn't tell anything at that hour. 42 lobe is def a bit west of 18z. But obv we aren't at the money panels yet.

I like the lobe around Thunder Bay and the kink in the trough starting to bend back but it’s still pretty early. 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, Nomz said:

The bit of vort near Winnipeg. Further west and more amped/slower have ended up with good solutions so far.

[stormtracker]

So there's no doubt NAM changed for the better.  So far, seems like baby steps, but again...it's early

[bncho]

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action, and that panel is DAMN good.

[coastal front]

Just now, bncho said:

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action

Oh wowwww

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, bncho said:

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action

Would take that all day long

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, bncho said:

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action

Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it???

[Buddy1987]

Still like the NAM quite a bit at 48.. @stormtrackerconcur?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it???

I think it's one member, but I'm only like 70% sure. It's the only model thingy run that SouthernWXers posted

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow.  

One observation before tonight's runs....

Need a north trend = good shape

Need a west trend = next

This is because of typical model bias errors.  Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features.  That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours.  So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time.  

Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations.  If anything it's the opposite.  Miller b storms trend east more often than west.  So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours.  

Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow 

As always PSU.. a great read bro!!!!! 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Still like the NAM quite a bit at 48.. @stormtrackerconcur?

Its a big step in the positive direction so far.   Let's see if it translates

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action, and that panel is DAMN good.

Yeah, that's member #1.

[Buddy1987]

Wow.. 54 hrs big time tilt going on.. this is trending toward gfs. You can see heights rising pretty drastically from 18z in the northeast. 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Its a big step in the positive direction so far.   Let's see if it translates

Feels like its favoring the AIFS solution.

edit: take that back it looks more GFS-like

[Buddy1987]

We all broke the NAM.. she stuck 

[stormtracker]

NAM is vastly better

[stormtracker]

18z0z

[bncho]

Jeez that NAM would be a bomb

[Cobalt]

h500 at hr 72 is a stone's throw away from the GFS solution.

[stormtracker]

I believe the NAM would come close or do it. The differences are crazy

[Ephesians2]

light snow breaking out in the southern half of the forum on 00z NAM 75h...

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I believe the NAM would come close or do it. The differences are crazy

Surface looks better than GFS

[stormtracker]

[Solution Man]

We have the Nam at range in our corner, snow breaking out Friday evening 

[bncho]

This would've probably done it.

[stormtracker]