overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Nomz said: "Everything I don't like is an outlier" not great analysis imo I mean there is a tigjt group, then there is a spread of other results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 11 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County? 100:1 ratios? Lol I asked the same earlier. Mine was 4.3 on 0.10. Yours is even worse, or the driest snow ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: All due respect - what features are you looking at @ hr30 to get you to that conclusion? Seems a bit early. The bit of vort near Winnipeg. Further west and more amped/slower have ended up with good solutions so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: All due respect - what features are you looking at @ hr30 to get you to that conclusion? Seems a bit early. I couldn't tell anything at that hour. 42 lobe is def a bit west of 18z. But obv we aren't at the money panels yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I couldn't tell anything at that hour. 42 lobe is def a bit west of 18z. But obv we aren't at the money panels yet. I like the lobe around Thunder Bay and the kink in the trough starting to bend back but it’s still pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Nomz said: The bit of vort near Winnipeg. Further west and more amped/slower have ended up with good solutions so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 So there's no doubt NAM changed for the better. So far, seems like baby steps, but again...it's early 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action, and that panel is DAMN good. 9 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, bncho said: Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action Oh wowwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, bncho said: Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action Would take that all day long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, bncho said: Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Still like the NAM quite a bit at 48.. @stormtrackerconcur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it??? I think it's one member, but I'm only like 70% sure. It's the only model thingy run that SouthernWXers posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow. One observation before tonight's runs.... Need a north trend = good shape Need a west trend = next This is because of typical model bias errors. Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features. That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours. So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time. Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations. If anything it's the opposite. Miller b storms trend east more often than west. So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours. Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow As always PSU.. a great read bro!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Still like the NAM quite a bit at 48.. @stormtrackerconcur? Its a big step in the positive direction so far. Let's see if it translates 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, bncho said: Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action, and that panel is DAMN good. Yeah, that's member #1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wow.. 54 hrs big time tilt going on.. this is trending toward gfs. You can see heights rising pretty drastically from 18z in the northeast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Its a big step in the positive direction so far. Let's see if it translates Feels like its favoring the AIFS solution. edit: take that back it looks more GFS-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 We all broke the NAM.. she stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 NAM is vastly better 9 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 18z0z 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Jeez that NAM would be a bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 h500 at hr 72 is a stone's throw away from the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 I believe the NAM would come close or do it. The differences are crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 light snow breaking out in the southern half of the forum on 00z NAM 75h... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, stormtracker said: I believe the NAM would come close or do it. The differences are crazy Surface looks better than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 We have the Nam at range in our corner, snow breaking out Friday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This would've probably done it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now