It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

79 was 8-12” in the Metro with more to the south and west.  No changeover.  That was the last time that I know of when LI Sound partially froze over.

2015:  

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/84/#comment-7969408

[RU848789]

And the cheese stands alone. The 6Z EPS ensemble mean is the last model of any I know of (to be fair I didn't check the Tanzanian - that's an inside joke on the weather boards) to still show appreciable snow inland from the coast (due to a few western hits) and just about all other models aren't even showing snow at the coast anymore (not counting Montauk). The CMC and GFS ensembles have finally thrown in the towel also. Yes, we're still 3+ days out so it's still possible for significant shifts west, but that's not the way to bet, especially in the time of AI models, which I don't recall making big shifts inside 3 days (but could be wrong on that).

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

... The stupid 2 low scenario ruined this threat. 

No it has nothing to do with surface features. The upper levels just aren't quite supportive of a significant coastal impact. The 500mb heights on Friday from the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia directly west to the NY/PA border are too low. There is too much suppression. That forces the ULL all the way down to Savannah Ga and there's not enough time to develop ridging in NY State and recover the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. An area of low surface pressure responds to the upper level divergence, forming and tracking well offshore.

[jm1220]

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out. 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out. 

It seems like parts of LI have done well this winter. NJ, with the possible exception of right along the NY border, has had a lot of sleet during both bigger events. It's definitely been a much better winter than the past few with lots of minor events and one major. But out this way it still feels like we're waiting for something to break right.

[RU848789]

It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), below, which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 00z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip (snow) shield. The GFS has shifted slightly
farther N/W with the storm track and precip shield compared to
the 12z run. It offers light QPF for extreme E/SE NJ and south
Delaware. The CMC has moved its QPF sharply S/E and now barely
has any QPF for our area. The ECMWF has remained steady with
some light totals for NJ/DE. It offers a few inches of snow for
DE and 1 to 2 for Eastern NJ. Our present forecast will have
some of this in our (ending 12Z Sunday) snow fcst. More snow
could fall after 12Z Sunday. A decent amount of uncertainity
remains.

When compared to Wednesday, the latest (01Z) NBM probabilistic
data has remained steady near the shore but trended down for
places close to the Delaware Valley. For snow amounts greater
than 2 inches (plowable), the range remains around 60-70 percent
near the coast to 25-35 percent near the I-95 corridor with
lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches,
these probs have dropped and are now around 20 percent near I-95
up to 35-50 percent near the coast.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

It seems like parts of LI have done well this winter. NJ, with the possible exception of right along the NY border, has had a lot of sleet during both bigger events. It's definitely been a much better winter than the past few with lots of minor events and one major. But out this way it still feels like we're waiting for something to break right.

I have close to 30”-near my season average so I’m definitely not complaining. There will be other opportunities and I’m confident something will work out when we’re still in the cold air and we’re going into our snowiest month of the year. But it’s impossible not to see at this point how much interference there is these days against any kind of big coastal storm-it’s either a kicker, random vorts destroying the baroclinic zone and stringing it out, all these things we see now wrong with this storm and ruining the setup. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I have close to 30”-near my season average so I’m definitely not complaining. There will be other opportunities and I’m confident something will work out when we’re still in the cold air and we’re going into our snowiest month of the year. But it’s impossible not to see at this point how much interference there is these days against any kind of big coastal storm-it’s either a kicker, random vorts destroying the baroclinic zone and stringing it out, all these things we see now wrong with this storm and ruining the setup. 

Yeah something usually goes wrong. But I think it's always been like that to a large degree. It's why NYC rarely exceeded 80" in a winter even dating back 100+ years and during a colder climate. We just didn't used to so carefully monitor from 10 days out on a dozen different models every 6 hours. It was convoluted in the past too but we just didn't notice.

[Dark Star]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), below, which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
531 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential of some sort of system developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast next weekend. The latest deterministic models are trending
towards a coastal scraper, with direct hits along the shore and
Delmarva, while the Poconos and nearby locales are spared
completely.

In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest
NBM has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20
to 25 percent north and western zones, around 40 percent I-95
corridor, near 50 percent immediate coast. In terms of timing,
if this storm affects us it could arrive as early as late day
Saturday and then last through Sunday. It should also be noted
that this storm may have significant winds with it such that
even if the center of the storm tracks well offshore, coastal
areas could still have strong winds.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

[the_other_guy]

I want to call out weird behavior from accuweather.

 

they virtually ignored the storm last week until it was right on our doorstep and then they went with the under in terms of accumulation.

 

This week they are all over this storm and bullish. Immediately put out 1 to 3 inches several days out and with model uncertainty.

 

Just odd

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

Here's Mount Holly's latest excerpts concerning the NBM:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...When compared to Wednesday, the latest (01Z) NBM probabilistic 
data has remained steady near the shore but trended down for 
places close to the Delaware Valley. For snow amounts greater 
than 2 inches (plowable), the range remains around 60-70 percent
near the coast to 25-35 percent near the I-95 corridor with 
lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, 
these probs have dropped and are now around 20 percent near I-95
up to 35-50 percent near the coast. 

[DreamBig]

Meteorologists are about as consistent as the models they use 

[Stormlover74]

Still way too high.. 20% of 6+ no way

[eduggs]

I'd still be keeping an eye on this if I was in eastern LI or coastal NJ - esp SNJ. Could still be a close pass with a deformation band even if the SLP is very far offshore.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still way too high.. 20% of 6+ no way

That was from the 1z NBM (QPF: 0.11"); the 13z cycle had 0.04" QPF for Philadelphia. Moreover, it seems that Mount Holly is using v4.3, which is the operational version. V.5.0 is currently in testing, but isn't widely accessible and is not incorporated into the widely used probabilistic tools. V5.0 is supposed to have more realistic snow-liquid ratios, but it won't become operational until spring. 

During prior upgrades, there was a test site where one could access the output. This time around, the test site isn't being utilized, which undermines early operational examination of the newer version.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'd still be keeping an eye on this if I was in eastern LI or coastal NJ - esp SNJ. Could still be a close pass with a deformation band even if the SLP is very far offshore.

Yep I could still see a rotting band or two make its way to Suffolk County or NJ. Could be good for a 1-3” deal. Out by the twin forks maybe 3-6”. 

[RU848789]

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in...

[nycsnow]

Nam gives us flurries lol

[RU848789]

31 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

Fixed it thanks - read the right one, pasted the wrong one, lol.  Same message though.  

[eduggs]

If other guidance eventually matches the NAM and we get one more small tick closer, this would be a fun nowcast on Sunday for coastal regions. I'm doubtful we even get that close given the persistence of unsupportive modeling outside recent ECM runs. But it's still a low level chance IMO.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, eduggs said:

If other guidance eventually matches the NAM and we get one more small tick closer, this would be a fun nowcast on Sunday for coastal regions. I'm doubtful we even get that close given the persistence of unsupportive modeling outside recent ECM runs. But it's still a low level chance IMO.

I could see a surprise 4 to 6 over Cape may. Wouldn't take much of a jog

[winterwarlock]

49 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), below, which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 00z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip (snow) shield. The GFS has shifted slightly
farther N/W with the storm track and precip shield compared to
the 12z run. It offers light QPF for extreme E/SE NJ and south
Delaware. The CMC has moved its QPF sharply S/E and now barely
has any QPF for our area. The ECMWF has remained steady with
some light totals for NJ/DE. It offers a few inches of snow for
DE and 1 to 2 for Eastern NJ. Our present forecast will have
some of this in our (ending 12Z Sunday) snow fcst. More snow
could fall after 12Z Sunday. A decent amount of uncertainity
remains.

Potential storm impacts include not just precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing
wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with
the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we
get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the
surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of
precip type.

When compared to Wednesday, the latest (01Z) NBM probabilistic
data has remained steady near the shore but trended down for
places close to the Delaware Valley. For snow amounts greater
than 2 inches (plowable), the range remains around 60-70 percent
near the coast to 25-35 percent near the I-95 corridor with
lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches,
these probs have dropped and are now around 20 percent near I-95
up to 35-50 percent near the coast.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

The NBM use in this situation is a joke. What is wrong with Mt Holly. Totally innaccurate because 2  or 3 ensembles warp the whole average

[CentralNJSnowman]

Use of the NBM seems really problematic.  Everyone has been looking at the weirdly high outputs and twisting themselves into pretzels coming up with logic about how there must be a few ensemble members throwing off the entire weighted average, when the NBM seems higher than any of the components that it "blends".  I'm pretty sure that some of the totals the NBM has split out the past couple of weeks would have required outliers of 200+ inches.  There was some discussion in the Mid-Atlantic subforum a few days ago about how there's an adjustment being made to account for recent under forecasting of the models.  It's pretty clear that there's something wrong with how those adjustments are being calculated and applied.

[RU848789]

And a decent jump NW by the ICON. Ok, now I have to watch the rest of the 12Z suite, lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

And a decent jump NW by the ICON. Ok, now I have to watch the rest of the 12Z suite, lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gonna bring it n/w enough to make you feel even worse  

[MJO812]

Very close. It then goes ENE from here.

[nycsnow]

RGEM said the nam and icon smoking crack

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Use of the NBM seems really problematic.  Everyone has been looking at the weirdly high outputs and twisting themselves into pretzels coming up with logic about how there must be a few ensemble members throwing off the entire weighted average, when the NBM seems higher than any of the components that it "blends".  I'm pretty sure that some of the totals the NBM has split out the past couple of weeks would have required outliers of 200+ inches.  There was some discussion in the Mid-Atlantic subforum a few days ago about how there's an adjustment being made to account for recent under forecasting of the models.  It's pretty clear that there's something wrong with how those adjustments are being calculated and applied.

I haven't looked closely but it seemed to be incorporating very high liquid to snow ratios. The QPF forecast map doesn't look that unreasonable, especially considering the lag. NWS offices also have to account for the small possibility that this shifts back NW at the last minute. They don't want forecast whiplash. 

[eduggs]

The RGEM run isn't encouraging. Worst run in several cycles. And the excellent run-to-run consistency dating back a few days further decreases the chances of last minute positive changes.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

The RGEM run isn't encouraging. Worst run in several cycles.

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings)