It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem looks way better than the Nam and looks decent. 

Yes. That’s true.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its coming

Completely agree

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'll be waiting for the euro tonight, work will be there tomorrow anyway. GFS next

[nycsnow]

Would be cool if gfs and ai showed a hit 

[Nibor]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Would be cool if gfs and ai showed a hit 

Unlikely, but we watch. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Unlikely, but we watch. 

Even a euro scenario would be good 

[NJwx85]

Early on GFS is slightly better.

[TJW014]

Trof looking better on the GFS too

[MJO812]

Gfs is way better than 18z

[dseagull]

Having flashbacks to 2010 (despite it being late January) ... I remember it well.   Oddly enough, Im not wishcasting for anything near that sort of evolution.   My work boats and equipment are currently frozen in place, which is costing me untold thousands of dollars each day, regardless of wintry precipitation.  

 

This is a "relatively rare" setup.  We just recieved a good storm, and everyone has a decent snowpack in this forum.  It has been years since we have seen this type of cold, following a SECS... Generally speaking, we cash in during relaxation of a similar patern.   Being a Nina year, this is intriguing.  Hope everyone has a moment to sit back and take this in... 

...If we do wind up seeing a cold and dry 2 weeks ahead, it will be interesting to find an overal analog year that makes sense of if all.  

 

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is way better than 18z

Favoring the northern and western lows

[Joe4alb]

[Winterweatherlover]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Completely agree

Depends for where. For eastern LI probably, for the rest of the subforum maybe maybe not.

[NJwx85]

Back to 12z

[Winterweatherlover]

19 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Even a euro scenario would be good 

Agree I'd be fine with few inches to whiten the pack even if it's not another major storm. A total miss would be kind of be disappointing.

[NJwx85]

Better but still at least two lows 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

is that a negative tilt i see, this should explode coming up the coast

[SACRUS]

 

00z gfs total QPF

[SACRUS]

00z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF

[nycsnow]

This might be the worst looking storm I’ve ever seen.. what are these models doing lol 

[SACRUS]

 

00z ICON  Total QPF

 

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

00z gfs total QPF

500 doesnt really align well with that output.   Seems disjointed.   I guess the upstream kicker means business.   Strange evolution.  

[TJW014]

Need to consolidate these lows. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

it was a little better, we'll take it. Cmc?

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

This might be the worst looking storm I’ve ever seen.. what are these models doing lol 

I've hated this storm all week, I don't like the look and the tight precip shield events. We may still luck out but this is not fun to track IMO because I knew the models would have big problems with this storm lol. Now we in the home stage though.

[Rjay]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

I've hated this storm all week, I don't like the look and the tight precip shield events. We may still luck out but this is not fun to track IMO lol

This had/has high-end potential.  It's definitely frustrating how it's playing out. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

500 doesnt really align well with that output.   Seems disjointed.   I guess the upstream kicker means business.   Strange evolution.  

There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess. 

[SACRUS]

GFS

[hooralph]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

00z gfs total QPF

 

[SACRUS]

GFS