wthrmn654 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What in the hell is cfs lmfao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: What in the hell is cfs lmfao. a model with very low skill scores-bottom of the list I believe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 probably gonna hit 55 F on sunday 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not much change on the GFS through 06z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What a mess with all of these surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 AIGFS still a no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: What in the hell is cfs lmfao. Crushes Forum Spectacularly, apparently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 All these models are chasing convection out east. GFS is not gonna work either. I'll give it until Tommorow before I back out. But not looking good right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, NJwx85 said: The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature. Most models are chasing that convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 It’s going to end up a tad worse than 06z. The trough axis is a tick further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature. Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Most models are chasing that convection then we may not know for another couple days-alot of time you see a correction west when they chase convection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 No chance with upper level winds like this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1/28 12z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1/28 12z GFS Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 oddly ends up better than 6z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Bye, bye 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, NJwx85 said: Bye, bye Yup , which I said earlier this morning. The threat is dead with that upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 12Z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: oddly ends up better than 6z GFS There was a bit more precip on the NW side but it was a setup back in the upper levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Neblizzard said: Yup , which I said earlier this morning. The threat is dead with that upper level pattern. You can’t get a storm to turn the corner with a big positively tilted trough, especially when it starts that far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z GFS = Minus a few ECMWF runs of this showing a blizzard , this was never our storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Early on the Canadian looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You can’t get a storm to turn the corner with a big positively tilted trough, especially when it starts that far South. the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 But...I was told this was coming. Why would Rjay betray us like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ? No, I just showed you the 250mb winds. The trough orientation is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The Canadian is going to end up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 cmc is like 150 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: cmc is like 150 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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