Snowlover11 Posted Tuesday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:23 PM Toss the euro convective feedback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted Tuesday at 12:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:38 PM 13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Toss the euro convective feedback. It’s been a while, hope to see such gems over the next few days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Tuesday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:40 PM 06z EPS is east of previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Tuesday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:41 PM Really bad trends overnight. Need to see some improvement in next 24 hours or this is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 12:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:42 PM Hey Good morning, still far away and these have been trending north lately so we have that on our side. GEFS look great but who can really trust them. Euro AI is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:51 PM I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:00 PM you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:02 PM 22 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Really bad trends overnight. Need to see some improvement in next 24 hours or this is over I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:03 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Tuesday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:03 PM Spring starts at the end of March and we could use an early Spring after a winter like this. Bitter cold has been relentless.Meanwhile 2 weeks ago some on this board decided to cancel winter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:05 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past weekends storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:11 PM 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past weekends storm ? Hes a meteorologist in SNE. He didnt do that well with the last storm. Hes right about the pattern though. It's very favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Tuesday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:11 PM 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Do you think it’s going to be pure fluff after 6 days of melting in the sun and then refreezing? I have like 18” on my roof. Another 2 feet on top of that wouldn’t be great. And it’s too high for one of those scrapers. I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood. Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:13 PM The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted Tuesday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:16 PM 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO TONS of people have been talking about this as a potential HECS. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but 2-4/3-6 is actually pretty unlikely with this one. If it hits, it’s probably a big one, unless you’re in the relatively small ‘just missed’ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go. I don't even listen to them (all noise) - - only well known reputable METS - IMO have to keep all options open this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM we're about 100 hours until this storm actually gets even close to us all we need is 100 miles west jog and we get a SECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members. That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM 1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said: TONS of people have been talking about this as a potential HECS. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but 2-4/3-6 is actually pretty unlikely with this one. If it hits, it’s probably a big one, unless you’re in the relatively small ‘just missed’ area. The EPS from last night showed a few inches - what evidence do you have that it will be all or nothing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:21 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out. thats snowfall not liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Tuesday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:24 PM 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now. Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. Go figure. that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets. Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around. back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Tuesday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:26 PM I’d like to start seeing a western shift if we are going to get somewhere with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: thats snowfall not liquid It's implied. Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go. Everyone I know is already talking about it, the media hype is nuts. It would be historical to get another big storm this quickly so not sure what will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. Go figure. that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets. Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around. back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening They need dump trucks to clean the big piles from the streets. Like you said , we are use to warmups after big storms but we might not hit freezing for another week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Just now, Snowlover11 said: I’d like to start seeing a western shift if we are going to get somewhere with this. models are in windshield mode now - IMO won't be for 2 or 3 days till we get solution we can mostly believe but not totally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. Go figure. that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets. Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around. back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening Do they still dump it in the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:29 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: It's implied. Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe. post one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Tuesday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:30 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: post one No thanks. There's enough of you doing that already. My point was, that's far from a clear swing and a miss signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM Theres 2 camps on the 6z EPS. One is in a good spot for our subforum track near the benchmark. The other is way out to sea. I’m encouraged by the GEFS but I want to see the EPS make a significant shift west with its mean today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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