The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

U know its on like donkey Kong when u have 74 people in this forum at 9:13 am

[Buddy1987]

NAM looking to go Boom beginning at 45.. Major improvement on the digging and heights rising in the Northeast.

[DTP]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Lol thats terrible. I just saw it! 

Delay glitch on the graphics edit software- idk why graphical software providers haven't managed to fix this over the last 15 years....I can almost 100% guarantee that whoever created the graphic saw the corrected and spell-checked version before posting.....unfortunately the graphics program doesn't always register the corrected version that the end user sees 

[DTP]

6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

NAM looking to go Boom beginning at 45.. Major improvement on the digging and heights rising in the Northeast.

Yessir- was just looking at the same thing....verbatim textbook setup for snow in E Upstate/CLT and pts N and E....I am more confident after the storm was sampled

[olafminesaw]

NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!

[ADB83]

I don’t really trust NAM at the range we’re getting to, but watching trends is important. If it’s on board too, it’s still a positive


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[Buddy1987]

Comparing it more now around hr 54, while the heights are better the axis point of the trough orientation is the same but sped up some, so i'm not so sure it's going to dig and turn more, which i'm sure most would be happy with around these neck of the woods (no north movement).

[olafminesaw]

NAM is A bit more positively tilted and faster.  

[Snowncanes]

Hr 72 is a good bit more east on the 5H and slower to cutoff and go neutral/neg. Not sure how this impacts the downstream yet 

[Buddy1987]

Nam def favors the more south and east trend. I-85, maybe I-40 south and east. RDU likes this.

[Upstate Tiger]

[Upstate Tiger]

[Upstate Tiger]

[wncsnow]

That was not what I expected from the NAM. Gotta think Google/Weathernext has the lead on this and the NAM will trend wetter in future runs. 

[ADB83]

Great run for Raleigh east. Not a great run for the Piedmont triad or south central VA. It’s also NAM out of its range.


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[StantonParkHoya]

Hear me out, this is going to sound wild, maybe this is a C/ENC storm

[ADB83]

Hear me out, this is going to sound wild, maybe this is a C/ENC storm

I feel like that area is in a good spot no matter what. Would take a major change to change that.


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[Snowncanes]

Who doesn’t love an 84hr NAM clown map? Obviously still snowing at this point (for presumably a while too)

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Hear me out, this is going to sound wild, maybe this is a C/ENC storm

I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm

[CheoahBald1]

Y’all putting a lot of stock into the NAM ouch been there done that… I like it decently 12 hrs before


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[lilj4425]

To the cliff diving thread.

[Buddy1987]

Nam was super dry with previous storm and then began to catch up to the globals so there's that minimum. ULL not digging though is concerning for western folks early on in the 12Z runs.

[KyleEverett]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

To the cliff diving thread.

It's a tale as old as time for Upstate and Northern SC. 

[Upstate Tiger]

I wish one of the mets would explain that Low in the bahamas.  GFS has that feature as well.  Just shown up in the last day.

We are not seeing the earlier phasing or negative tilt we saw at 18z.  Probably all noise at this point any way...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

No one should take NAM literally, especially at this range. Its usefulness is for trends ,and perhaps, thermal profiles as we approach gametime. 

[USCG RS]

There are a ton of vorts around. So, a ton of energy. Models are going to have trouble resolving this and while globalist are good to smooth things out, Mesos will need to truly sort these out. This could go boom and capture back west or it could consolidate East. Yet another tough forecast. 

[SUNYGRAD]

 

 

 

[wncsnow]

Going up big time

[SUNYGRAD]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Going up big time

That's pretty high amounts for blended.  

[Buddy1987]

@wncsnowextrapolating 12Z FV3 pretty big night and day difference at 5h comparing it to 12Z NAM. Would like to think it was def trending good with the ULL.