The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[SouthboundYank]

1 hour ago, AirNelson39 said:

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Oh I'm definitely cautious. Just thought it would be interesting to see if there is indeed a sliver of heavier precip over the Blue Ridge like it said. 

VERY valid advice here. While I posted a somewhat common sense intepretation from Gemini's interpretation from WeatherNext 2.0 earlier....when I ask the same of Gemini on my GoogleTV, it tells me that highs on Sat/Sun this weekend are going to be in the 50s, with lows in low 40s, with NO precipitation.  So yeah, always confirm and double-check AI interpretations...the hallucinations are very real.

[BornAgain13]

18z ICON Eps does not agree with its OP. Sends about the same amount of precip back west as 12z maybe a tad more in some spots. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z ICON Eps does not agree with its OP. Sends about the same amount of precip back west as 12z maybe a tad more in some spots. 

I like pretty pictures

[timnc910]

I just went back and looked at how the ICON handled the last storm. It wasn't even close. Do we really lean on the ICON for anything at this point?

[UpstateSCBud]

3 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

I just went back and looked at how the ICON handled the last storm. It wasn't even close. Do we really lean on the ICON for anything at this point?

You know how it goes…we lean on it only if it shows us the snow amounts we want to see lol

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I like pretty pictures

18z ICON EPS. 

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

I just went back and looked at how the ICON handled the last storm. It wasn't even close. Do we really lean on the ICON for anything at this point?

It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage

[BornAgain13]

Alright folks, let's see what the GFS does. No way it shows a 12z run again. What im looking for is does it continue to trend west?

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage

Yes, and by appetizer, it’s freezer burnt fish sticks you forgot about behind the pizza bought last year

[PenguinLover]

The recent RGEM runs have light precip beginning way further west and into other states besides the Carolinas.

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, PenguinLover said:

The recent RGEM runs have light precip beginning way further west and into other states besides the Carolinas.

Lil bit of a gulf tap to it. I’ve seen some hints (faint) on the ensembles for that and it’s not out of the question. That would certainly be a game changer. You’d get almost a board wide event. 

[DTP]

59 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This storm is really reminding me more and more of this one. The setup is quite similar. 

 

 

 

Ha- remember this storm well- still one of my all-time favorites..... lived off of Harris Blvd/Davis Lake in N CLT at the time....remember waking up to 8"+ of blowing snow and a 15 degree air temp- don't see that very often down in the S Piedmont 

[Buddy1987]

GFS looking very similar thus far at hr 48. Key is somewhere between hr 84-90 to see the trough axis and pivot point in my mind. 

[wncsnow]

AIGFS crushes western Piedmont 

[wncsnow]

This meso low could mean business.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

This meso low could mean business.

It’s almost like what the northeast would experience with a Norlun Trough.. pretty cool stuff.

I also like the trough axis/orientation at 66 on gfs. I think it may look a tad better even than 12z (proceeds to hold breath on analysis)

[wncsnow]

Regular GFS is gonna be a dream run 

[KrummWx]

5h looking good through 75

[ADB83]

GFS doubling down for all the weenies. Which includes me.


.

[StantonParkHoya]

Regular GFS is gonna be a dream run 

For who


.

[BooneWX]

Good lord what a weenie run for the foothills and upstate. Exercising demons for all of us in this region. 

[Buddy1987]

Wow.. it’s looking even better as the energy digs at 78 over southeastern NE/southwestern IA

[KrummWx]

digging more through AR at 84 too

[Buddy1987]

Just now, KrummWx said:

digging more through AR at 84 too

Trying it’s damndest to lift the orientation of the trough too in upstate NY.. need it to go positive/neutral as quick as we can here..

[KrummWx]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The Korean model 

[Buddy1987]

Mega bowling ball now at hr 96 rolling thru northern AL. Surface looks fantastic for good chunk of VA/NC folks minimum here. Please be right for once GFS!

[KrummWx]

[KrummWx]

She's a beaut. What a bowling ball

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 @wncsnow @BooneWX NUKED!