February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[RevWarReenactor]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a legit threat.  Not all longwave patterns are created equal.  Not all -PNA's are created equal.  A -PNA pattern without any blocking and a scorched N America with no cold air anywhere is never going to work, and that is what we've had when we've had a -PNA most of the time lately.  

A -PNA with blocking and a N America covered in snow and cold air left over could possibly work.  Yes it will be a warmer pattern, yea any wave COULD end up rain...but at least there will be waves coming at us and room for them to amplify. 

Its weird how looking at storms that could be rain coming for us is way better than looking at temps in the teens with absolutely nothing. 

At least we have a shot. I don't think its a good one, but its a better one than suppression to North Carolina while my heating bill skyrockets. 

[stormy]

The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it!  That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway.  I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! 

The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z.    I like the EURO solution.  10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.

[Heisy]

[GreyHat]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6:40p after 18z Euro

Start it 3 or 4 days before the event. The way things have been going, looks great this far out then seems to fizzle out, go south or maybe north with some rain as the the cold retreats.