February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Have to dig into the thermals (hard) to see how much of that is sleet, but I’ve appreciated its general consistency for the period for sure. It’s the model I’d rather have on my side vs. anything else…

WB only shows 850 and 700mb temps, and both of them our below freezing throughout the whole even for DC and NW (maybe it thinks they are all snow just based off those two temps??). SFC temps are pretty marginal (29-33) to start and become borderline unworkable towards the end (35-39). I'd bet a lot of that snowfall output is white rain or plain out rain.

[stormtracker]

51 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I can't help if I  have shown the maps that support warmth, whether GFS, EPS, AIEuro etc.

You like others just show yourselves as cyber bullies.

Well maybe post in the forum you’re supposed to post in?  You can always do that and get away from the mean ol bullies? 

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Don't pay attention to them.. they are cyber bullies. Adults who get on you if you don't make posts about how it's going to snow. I am "super annoying" for responding to 2 PSU posts linking me yesterday, just saying that the pattern is bad and it's probably going to rain. They are talking about this magical -NAO, but it's like not even negative for the storm.. neutral. Easy call, imo. The pattern is changing quickly in the next few days. 

Hi Chuck.  

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not sure if your actually just trying to troll or not but I'm saying this to try to be helpful to you.

99.9 % of this forum is looking for snow. It's ok to post about models that are warm or showing cutters but your also leaving out other models that are a hit or suppressed like pretty much the euro suite or even the operational Canadian.  Feels like you have an agenda.

There's a wide range of possibilities for next weekend but for some reason you keep harping on any model run that shows a cutter or posting 2m temp maps of  2 days after the potential storm would be over.

I see that your newer here but I would suggest reading more and posting less. I was a member for years before ever posting anything. I was just reading and learning.

People aren't going to be receptive if your just posting the same thing over and over again.

Again not bullying you. Just giving you some feedback that I think may be helpful.

This.  This right here.  All of it. 

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@GreyHat, I do not think I add a whole lot of help to discussions either. I do post infrequently but somewhat regularly. It is all the point. The way you phrase things matters. Question don't assert. Take everything as a way to learn and not tell people how they are wrong or right. Seriously.. Ask questions... Like, why would you think the GFS is wrong here? You know what.. You will understand more why we think it is a turd model many times. It just has not been consistent at all. Additionally, the Euro has had some challenges in the long range as well. We are all being interested in the new Ai stuff because it seems to have ideas on upper level patterns and has been helpful. Ensembles will help us in the long range.. Jumping verbatim on every model run is a curse we all can tend to have, so people curse the models and have fun or join the misery of missing snow. It is the posture of learning, being skeptical, asking questions, and non assertive or critical that helps this place be fun and worthwhile. And yes.. In the Mid Atlantic (and trends over the last few decades) the threat of warmth is not only real, it is a given. Getting a good clean snow in the mid Atlantic outside the mountains is getting harder. So we always know it. I always have doubts.. Even cold systems can do crazy things like sleet on you for 5 inches with temps in the low teens. Just take the posture of learning.. Asking questions, being no assertive, and also be considerate. Weather is a huge challenge no matter what. We all know it. 

That is my advice.. Not sure it helps

Thank you, this helps and respectful. 

There are others on here that are not and rather attack a person.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

WB only shows 850 and 700mb temps, and both of them our below freezing throughout the whole even for DC and NW (maybe it thinks they are all snow just based off those two temps??). SFC temps are pretty marginal (29-33) to start and become borderline unworkable towards the end (35-39). I'd bet a lot of that snowfall output is white rain or plain out rain.

This was a colder run and legit snow. Some past runs were showing snow on the clown maps but had questionable thermals 

[NorthArlington101]

WB only shows 850 and 700mb temps, and both of them our below freezing throughout the whole even for DC and NW (maybe it thinks they are all snow just based off those two temps??). SFC temps are pretty marginal (29-33) to start and become borderline unworkable towards the end (35-39). I'd bet a lot of that snowfall output is white rain or plain out rain.

Willing to blissfully ignore the surface temps at this range a little bit - not it’s specialty. Still not what you’d like to hear

Edit: I’ll trust PSU

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well maybe post in the forum you’re supposed to post in?  You can always do that and get away from the mean ol bullies? 

Actually this is the area I'm  in. I appreciated what you stated about ignoring them.

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 one thing though, legit point of contention, isnt what the nao is a few days before the storm more important than the day of?  By then the tracks are set. So many of our storms the nao was near neutral the day of but was set up by a -nao leading up to the storm. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Willing to blissfully ignore the surface temps at this range a little bit - not it’s specialty. Still not what you’d like to hear

Edit: I’ll trust PSU

The AI models don’t resolve those kinds of details well. They’re not trying to. They are good imo with the synoptic level setup. Track is major features. I wouldn’t worry about its thermals. This run was a snowstorm. Some of the past ones were rain and the funky snow map showed snow and I didn’t feel like arguing about it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 one thing though, legit point of contention, isnt what the nao is a few days before the storm more important than the day of?  By then the tracks are set. So many of our storms the nao was near neutral the day of but was set up by a -nao leading up to the storm. 

The original thought was that we were coming out of deep -AO, rising back to neutral, so this could be the big storm. But the Pacific pattern is entering an extreme, and a now projected +450dm -PNA north Pacific High pressure is going to in trend, squash that EC trough, to at least make it warm enough to rain imo. The NAO ridge is right over top, so when the Pacific pattern changes it sometimes take 3 days to impact us downstream, this one is part of the now-time pattern, with a trough perhaps sticking beneath upper latitude ridging. The GEFS has basically brought the NAO to neutral, as you pointed out and the EPS is weakly negative. At this range the ensemble guidance and big picture pattern is the way to go. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hi Chuck.  

I would do another LES chase sometime. Would you? 

[ravensrule]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Don't pay attention to them.. they are cyber bullies. Adults who get on you if you don't make posts about how it's going to snow. I am "super annoying" for responding to 2 PSU posts linking me yesterday, just saying that the pattern is bad and it's probably going to rain. They are talking about this magical -NAO, but it's like not even negative for the storm.. neutral. Easy call, imo. The pattern is changing quickly in the next few days. 

So you’re saying it’s for sure going to be rain for the next 2 storms?.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, ravensrule said:

So you’re saying it’s for sure going to be rain for the next 2 storms?.

I think so. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think so. 

I hope you’re wrong, you definitely know way more than me. Just a fair warning though, I’m going to troll the shit out of you if either one is snow. 

[GreyHat]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

IMO you just got a bad first rep and that's the reason why a lot of us (I'll even admit me included) don't like you. It also feels like you tend to post stuff against snow and cold here in a forum full of snow weenies... but at least you're trying. 

The big thing is read more and post less. Hell I'm still trying to do that, and I suck at it still. I've only gotten slightly better over the last few weeks.

Okay, thank you, I  understand the snow weenies. I was always told to be up front with the good, bad, and the ugly. 

I appreciate what you stated. FYI, I do like snow as much as anyone else. It seems we are in a very volatile weather period. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think so. 

I greatly respect your opinion, and appreciate your matter of fact tone and expertise.  Thank you. If I understand you correctly, seeing the PNA go to -3 to -4 standard deviation makes it really tough for us to be cold enough for snow.  My hope is that some of the members that are less extreme win out over the next week or it takes a little longer to tank that low; or as others pointed out other indices blunt its effect to some degree. We will find out soon enough!  Best.

[GreyHat]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

WB only shows 850 and 700mb temps, and both of them our below freezing throughout the whole even for DC and NW (maybe it thinks they are all snow just based off those two temps??). SFC temps are pretty marginal (29-33) to start and become borderline unworkable towards the end (35-39). I'd bet a lot of that snowfall output is white rain or plain out rain.

I see the 18z EPS AI is coming out now but why does it show on Pivital 18z (Plus)?

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Okay, thank you, I  understand the snow weenies. I was always told to be up front with the good, bad, and the ugly. 

I appreciate what you stated. FYI, I do like snow as much as anyone else. It seems we are in a very volatile weather period. 

 

 

Always! LOL! The area has a million ways to screw up a good-looking snowstorm pattern or even an event! I am always negative on this stuff. Sadly, the warm air seems to find its way in, even when models say it won't! I play "Debbie Downer" too many times. I also need to not share that too often.. because the region is not always easy to snow... but it can! 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I greatly respect your opinion, and appreciate your matter of fact tone and expertise.  Thank you. If I understand you correctly, seeing the PNA go to -3 to -4 standard deviation makes it really tough for us to be cold enough for snow.  My hope is that some of the members that are less extreme win out over the next week or it takes a little longer to tank that low; or as others pointed out other indices blunt its effect to some degree. We will find out soon enough!  Best.

Yeah, the further out in time we go the lower the chance we have with that pattern establishing and flexing. 

[Scraff]

I’m Saturday Frederick drunk (yeah fuckers I know it’s only 7:23 PM) and don’t know shit about anything. Anyone have cliff notes for some snow next week? Following weekend? My apologies. Such language shouldn’t be tolerated unless I make 150K. Damn it! Only pulled off 149k in 2025. Sue me bitches. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I greatly respect your opinion, and appreciate your matter of fact tone and expertise.  Thank you. If I understand you correctly, seeing the PNA go to -3 to -4 standard deviation makes it really tough for us to be cold enough for snow.  My hope is that some of the members that are less extreme win out over the next week or it takes a little longer to tank that low; or as others pointed out other indices blunt its effect to some degree. We will find out soon enough!  Best.

There is a lag. I’m worried about CAPEs 18-20 window. I think that might end up too warm. I think we have a shot for the 15th threat if it ejects a healthy wave in time. The longer it waits the worse it gets. 

[psuhoffman]

Aifs trended colder too. Most of the misses are to the south not north. 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a lag. I’m worried about CAPEs 18-20 window. I think that might end up too warm. I think we have a shot for the 15th threat if it ejects a healthy wave in time. The longer it waits the worse it gets. 

Question; back in the day some poster whether it was doorman or others.  Said to looked towards the Aleutians and look to 60 day lag. Is that correct?

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would do another LES chase sometime. Would you? 

Of course man

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m Saturday Frederick drunk (yeah fuckers I know it’s only 7:23 PM) and don’t know shit about anything. Anyone have cliff notes for some snow next week? Following weekend? My apologies. Such language shouldn’t be tolerated unless I make 150K. Damn it! Only pulled off 149k in 2025. Sue me bitches. 

I'll be pulling into the Shit Face station pretty soon.  Had to go in on a Saturday and it was kinda rough.

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I see the 18z EPS AI is coming out now but why does it show on Pivital 18z (Plus)?

If I'm understanding your question correctly, I was refrerring to the 18z OP Euro AI. The EPS-AI doesn't come out until later on

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Question; back in the day some poster whether it was doorman or others.  Said to looked towards the Aleutians and look to 60 day lag. Is that correct?

It’s not a 60 day lag but yes what’s happening there has a downstream impact on us. The impact is much faster than 60 days. 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not a 60 day lag but yes what’s happening there has a downstream impact on us. The impact is much faster than 60 days. 

Thank you, and what little effects I know of that and the rossbry wave.

This helps me to understand things.

Thank you again. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

If I'm understanding your question correctly, I was refrerring to the 18z OP Euro AI. The EPS-AI doesn't come out until later on

It’s out. Targets central and southern VA the most but still a good number of hits up our way. It was a colder souther run than 12z. Same as the op.