February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Ji]

It’s 200 hours out. What kind of signal are you expecting? 

Purple! Like the Ai ensembles has been

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

But what if a 20”er is texting you a booty call? 

I don't believe @stormtracker is texting him. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Pull that snow 75 miles SE and it's a forum winner

I'm fine exactly where it is, it's been a long 10 years. It's our turn. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Purple! Like the Ai ensembles has been

The AIFS eps has a known under dispersion issue. So when it’s good it can be very good. And then it flips to nothing a run later. Thats a flaw with its ens. Any well distributed ensemble system from 200 hours isn’t going to snow some super crazy signal because at that range there should be a lot of variance to the perturbations. 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I'm fine exactly where it is, it's been a long 10 years. It's our turn. 

Cool, you don't want more snow. 

And I'll surely remember that!

[Ji]

Cool, you don't want more snow. 
And I'll surely remember that!

You ready to stormtrack one more for more this season?

[brooklynwx99]

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

Uh oh you just sent up the batsignal to  @Stormchaserchuck1

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

Yup, been posting about this for a couple days. Interesting period for sure.

[TowsonWeather]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I just realized that was a 10-1 map. After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60!  

“After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60”

@ravensrule that’s your music, bud. 

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

“After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60”

@ravensrule that’s your music, bud. 

Even with my performance enhancing drugs i can’t get there. 

[stormtracker]

GFS coming in stronger with the S/w for 14th so far

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS coming in stronger with the S/w for 14th so far

Just gunna say. Not exactly like the Euro, but a big change from 12z that had nada.

[stormtracker]

lol, watch the GFS fuck this up and go south

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS coming in stronger with the S/w for 14th so far

weaker 50/50 stronger wave probably means rain this run 

[stormtracker]

First little wave shunted south, but the main s/w is still north west of us...let's see what this does

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

weaker 50/50 stronger wave probably means rain this run 

So far, cold enough..but we both know what's gonna happen

[stormtracker]

Snowing 6z Sat

[psuhoffman]

Never mind NS SW dives across the top and saves the day. What do I know. Horrific analysis. Randy so sorry. I’m out. 

[stormtracker]

moderate to heavy snow 9z

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Never mind NS SW dives across the top and saves the day. What do I know. Horrific analysis. Randy so sorry. I’m out. 

lol, stop.  Getting it good so far

[stormtracker]

Moderate snow at 12z Saturday

[stormtracker]

Still moderate snow at 15z.  This is a good ass run

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, stop.  Getting it good so far

I also wasn’t accounting for the timing difference. I was seeing the 50/50 retreating sooner but not factoring the wave was coming faster this run. They evened out. 

[stormtracker]

Still going at 18z Sat.  @NorthArlington101, you know what to do

[stormtracker]

Lock this mfer up.  Too bad it's the GFS

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Never mind NS SW dives across the top and saves the day. What do I know. Horrific analysis. Randy so sorry. I’m out. 

I think you're fine, probably no need to apologize.  Everyone here respects your analysis.  Even if you're making less than $150K hahaha!  You always appropriately correct or re-state things when required.  Besides, at this time range those smaller details like NS shortwaves and such are going to move around every cycle.  Key takeaway is there is a solid signal for us in that time period, seems like one or two waves in there that could work?

[stormtracker]

Prob like 6-8

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still going at 18z Sat.  @bncho, you know what to do

10:1 is very similar to this btw

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still moderate snow at 15z.  This is a good ass run

6-10” DC to PA line 3-6” south of DC another 40 miles