January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm convinced the government in new york is stupid and a scam to take our money

Ya think?????

[Nomz]

Some weenie cope for us if the GFS somehow holds 

[LordBaltimore]

The GFS isn't really even a shit model. The model itself is the least important part of prediction. The problem is that years ago everyone decided to take some French guys hair-brained idea and adopt what's unfortunately known as "JEDI" which has become an absolute black hole for man-hours and resources that would otherwise be spent tuning and incrementally improving

[Steve25]

Suddenly would it be a weenie thing to say I’m expecting 6 inches of snow and then a sleet bomb in Baltimore? Or is that fairly realistic and people are just angry because they wanted it to be 12-18 inches of snow? 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

You wanna go home to have any chance. Although I was not joking about them/you missing the big stuff up there too. If you stay you are going to see an icy hellscape. 

Dude, you might want to just stop looking at models tonight lol.  We’re going to see snow - but we’re all (or most of us) mixing.  Hopefully we can keep it at bay for as long as possible. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Suddenly would it be a weenie thing to say I’m expecting 6 inches of snow and then a sleet bomb in Baltimore? Or is that fairly realistic and people are just angry because they wanted it to be 12-18 inches of snow? 

Pretty much the case based on the 18z Euro and adjacent models.

[pazzo83]

39 minutes ago, bncho said:

What type of CWG forecast is this?

Honestly you could see that from JFK / along the coast compared to somewhere in upper Manhattan / the Bronx.

[Nomz]

GFS is a money run

[paulythegun]

GFS was not informed about the slightly anomalously cold temps in a tiny area of the Pacific. Once it learns, it will Make Less Snow For Us*

*Source: SCIENCE

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

The GFS isn't really even a shit model. The model itself is the least important part of prediction. The problem is that years ago everyone decided to take some French guys hair-brained idea and adopt what's unfortunately known as "JEDI" which has become an absolute black hole for man-hours and resources that would otherwise be spent tuning and incrementally improving

Damn. I am not even sure if you are trolling or something. WTF?

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Suddenly would it be a weenie thing to say I’m expecting 6 inches of snow and then a sleet bomb in Baltimore? Or is that fairly realistic and people are just angry because they wanted it to be 12-18 inches of snow? 

I think your good for 6 man. I am just salty because like always Winchester gets the jack on guidance and it ends up half of that. Although I honestly thought this setup is was the right one for me to cash in 20 out here. I think we all get at least 6.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Dude, you might want to just stop looking at models tonight lol.  We’re going to see snow - but we’re all (or most of us) mixing.  Hopefully we can keep it at bay for as long as possible. 

Yes we are. He asked whether he would be better off up there than here. There is no doubting he would be better off up there for snow. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes we are. He asked whether he would be better off up there than here. There is no doubting he would be better off up there for snow. 

I am looking forward to your obs Sunday morning that its a “BEATDOWN right now” out by you! 

[Nomz]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yes we are. He asked whether he would be better off up there than here. There is no doubting he would be better off up there for snow. 

Oh, I know I'll be better up there. Just very spiteful about it.

Anyways, either GFS should be permanently ignored or it's about to go on the greatest model Linsanity run I've ever seen.

[LordBaltimore]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Damn. I am not even sure if you are trolling or something. WTF?

I'm exaggerating a little. Obv the model is important, but DA is more important. It was a stupid idea to take on a DA system written in c++ and coded mainly by people outside the field. Most people in this profession are old, they aren't going to learn that shit. And it was effort and money that could've just gone into adding more ensemble members or doing an ensemble of 4dvars like the Euro. But they had to have the shiny object oriented gamer software

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I am looking forward to your obs Sunday morning that its a “BEATDOWN right now” out by you! 

Thats just because I am a troll. 

I do hope the GFS scores a coup though. And I do see a slight chance this can be salvaged. We have a ton of cold in place when this kicks off. 

[paulythegun]

GFS ingested the Baja Recon data. Instead of waiting an hour, it became impatient after about 15 minutes and ingested MORE Baja Recon Data.

Amateur hour.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Thats just because I am a troll. 

I do hope the GFS scores a coup though. And I do see a slight chance this can be salvaged. We have a ton of cold in place when this kicks off. 

It's salvageable because we only need models to be off by like 2C to get us back to a foot. Lot easier to get a 2C error than a .5 QPF error.

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Pretty much the case based on the 18z Euro and adjacent models.

I guess I stand alone on this, but I’d be pretty happy with anything 6+ of snow even if it’s followed by a bunch of sleet. I haven’t witnessed a 6 inch snowfall in Baltimore in 10 years. To have it be followed by potentially a full week of sub-freezing temps, too? It’ll feel like deep winter, and I’ll love it. I’d take that 10 out of 10 times over 2 feet of snow that ends up melting down within a week or two. 
 

Obviously any time you compare to what could’ve been, it’s going to drive you crazy. It’s not like we were ever locked in for massive snows with this one, though. There has definitely been modeling that’s given us hope of that, but there have been constant concerns. We literally went from being worried about suppression to being worried about it being too amped in what felt like the blink of an eye. 
 

Also, this is a very Baltimore area post. For those of you further south/east, I empathize with you. And hey, maybe this thing will COMPLETELY fall apart for us up here too. Still plenty of time for disastrous changes lol

[nj2va]

At least the Australian Open 3rd round is on live…Alcaraz cruising.

[Nomz]

GFS drops the nuke again at the end of the month. Not a forecast.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

It's salvageable because we only need models to be off by like 2C to get us back to a foot. Lot easier to get a 2C error than a .5 QPF error.

Yep. And I am not sure any of the models are actually capable of comprehending this arctic airmass that is coming. It is a once in every 30 year thing here. That is the one thing that has me somewhat hopeful. We have a really rare airmass coming. Now if that changes it is all over. 

[nw baltimore wx]

32 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why bet on a foregone conclusion?

We really need a "shush!" emoji,

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I guess I stand alone on this, but I’d be pretty happy with anything 6+ of snow even if it’s followed by a bunch of sleet. I haven’t witnessed a 6 inch snowfall in Baltimore in 10 years. To have it be followed by potentially a full week of sub-freezing temps, too? It’ll feel like deep winter, and I’ll love it. I’d take that 10 out of 10 times over 2 feet of snow that ends up melting down within a week or two. 
 

Obviously any time you compare to what could’ve been, it’s going to drive you crazy. It’s not like we were ever locked in for massive snows with this one, though. There has definitely been modeling that’s given us hope of that, but there have been constant concerns. We literally went from being worried about suppression to being worried about it being too amped in what felt like the blink of an eye. 
 

Also, this is a very Baltimore area post. For those of you further south/east, I empathize with you. And hey, maybe this thing will COMPLETELY fall apart for us up here too. Still plenty of time for disastrous changes lol

I still think 6 is the floor for Baltimore, 18z euro had a city and county total nearing and surpassing 10.

[nj2va]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I still think 6 is the floor for Baltimore, 18z euro had a city and county total nearing and surpassing 10.

Welcome back, glad you’re back to being in on this storm!

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Welcome back, glad you’re back to being in on this storm!

Jumped back on after last night’s improvement held at 6z.

Now if the NAM and RGEM based cliff jumpers wind up being right tomorrow AM…

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

What type of CWG forecast is this?

What do you expect from the single dumbest human being in the world?. 

[Nomz]

From LWX AFD

[wxdude64]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

I'm exaggerating a little. Obv the model is important, but DA is more important. It was a stupid idea to take on a DA system written in c++ and coded mainly by people outside the field. Most people in this profession are old, they aren't going to learn that shit. And it was effort and money that could've just gone into adding more ensemble members or doing an ensemble of 4dvars like the Euro. But they had to have the shiny object oriented gamer software

LOL, sounds like my workplace. Last 14 years I was there I worked a 'temp 6 month changeover' going from a DOS system (yes, in 2009) to not one, but two systems that DID NOT communicate with each other (mainly because financial side wanted to 'see' everything and the actual machine/field side thought that system was too complicated). An interface was built to do the hand-offs, but it NEVER worked right and was a pure disaster at the first location down in Texas when we went down to put it online. That '6 month project' I rode out on until I retired, it did get slightly better the last 3 years, but wow. The 'savings' claimed by the folks that came up with that cost each location a minimum of four new people/positions to babysit and fix the errors/failures. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yes, you can catch up on your biology....

ok i said i bombed it but i never said i failed lol. yall are thinking i got a 25% or smth