Snowman92 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The stores were a mess yesterday. Schools might also close on Monday . I know I am 40 miles straight NW of Sheepshead Bay now. Used to live there. Costco here in Bergen was a warzone. I may squeeze out 12" but the craze around the boroughs was not required. Just stay off the roads in the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual. NAM sucks! I would toss but yes we will sleet maybe up to White Plains and than that sleet line will collapse again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I mean look, it’s not like we’re surging into the 40s after this and the snow/ice will be gone. It will be a very dense 6, 8 inches or whatever that will last a long time and over time will congeal into cement. NYC will have the same water content in whatever falls as Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15z RAP still snowing at 6PM FWIW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual. Could very well be right. But the nam and icon alone atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The rap is pretty consistent showing this but how is the RAP with thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: Could very well be right. But the nam and icon alone atm The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down. Primary could end up being a bit weaker which may prevent the changeover for an hour or two. This could add a few or even several inches to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down. So the models are never wrong with a storm ? We never had positive busts ? Models are computer generated. Lets see how the storm progresses tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The Rap is a foot plus forum wide. Hoping and praying LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer. For nyc area it was within an inch of what it showed for 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I mean look, it’s not like we’re surging into the 40s after this and the snow/ice will be gone. It will be a very dense 6, 8 inches or whatever that will last a long time and over time will congeal into cement. NYC will have the same water content in whatever falls as Albany. Temperature will be below freezing throughout the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 37 minutes ago, wxman said: According to Gemini (aka "ask Jeeves"): In 2026, the FV3 model (specifically in its High-Resolution Window and GFS implementations) is noted for a more conservative approach to "warm noses" (elevated layers of air above freezing) compared to older models like the NAM. Warm Nose Prediction Characteristics Layer Integrity: The FV3 tends to maintain colder column integrity better than the NAM. In winter weather setups, it often predicts a weaker or later-arriving warm nose, which can lead to forecasts for more persistent snow while other models might suggest an earlier transition to sleet or rain. Sounds like it's averaging every post about it that has ever appeared in this forum. A bit of circular reasoning going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer. Sleet counts towards snow amounts . Its going to be cold tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: So the models are never wrong with a storm ? We never had positive busts ? Models are computer generated. Lets see how the storm progresses tomorrow. Theres a primary pumping warm air and upper level lows tracking to the northwest, theres no reason for this not to change to sleet, it's not like it's even on the fence, the sleet line is to near I84 on the latest models. I am not saying we can't still get significant snow if the front end produces but the sleet is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Juturna said: As long as it’s messy enough to close school Monday, I’ll take it. Handicapped, and my snow cleaning crew ain’t digging me out till Monday I’m sure. My town has already canceled garbage pickup Monday as well. Dsny will most likely not pick up garbage on Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.12z was snowier than 6z from overnight actually. It looks basically the same and is 100 miles south of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 FWIW RAP - seems to always be the coldest in these situations 15Z QPF Sow (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Theres a primary pumping warm air and upper level lows tracking to the northwest, theres no reason for this not to change to sleet, it's not like it's even on the fence, the sleet line is to near I84 on the latest models. I am not saying we can't still get significant snow if the front end produces but the sleet is inevitable. I agree. Im saying we dont know when that will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Backend snow included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: Temperature will be below freezing throughout the storm Most likely yes except NJ coast and possibly southeast Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The RGEM is late. Again. Right now, taking into consideration the early 12z guidance, my thinking is that a reasonable worst-case (least snowy) outcome for New York City is 5" (no real change from previous thinking). A reasonable best case is 12" (down 2" from previous thinking). For now, I'm still thinking that a 6"-12" range for storm total snow and sleet captures the most likely scenarios. Well north and west of the City, 12"-18" still appears likely. Areas south and east of the City and its nearby suburbs down to the central Jersey Shore and on eastern Long Island are in line for 4"-8". As a note, I am not fixated on any single model. My thinking takes into consideration the full range. No model has been dismissed at this time. Moreover, 100% of individual EPS members had a 6" or greater snowfall. I do think that the 12z HRRR was too snowy for New York City, but we'll see what the later guidance shows. By 18z and especially 0z, differences among the various models should narrow dramatically. All in all, this will still be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or perhaps five years. Personally, given the long snow drought, including the record 1,456 consecutive days without a 4" or greater daily snowfall (that includes today), I'll gladly accept the outcome that appears likely. Of course, I appreciate even the smaller events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilton_wx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RAP tends to be good at less than 20 hours, once it gets farther out its tough to tell. I think the NAM/GFS might be too progressive with the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: The rap is pretty consistent showing this but how is the RAP with thermals? I’ve found that these models are too cold with these type storms this far out. By tonight it will have more of a clue. I’m going to look to see trends in how the snow gets here/how fast we pile up vs whether we (around the city) stay snow or change over to much sleet. That to me’s been decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SACRUS said: FWIW RAP - seems to always be the coldest in these situations 15Z QPF Sow (10:1) Minus nam and rrfs the short term models look like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: I’ve found that these models are too cold with these type storms this far out. By tonight it will have more of a clue. I’m going to look to see trends in how the snow gets here/how fast we pile up vs whether we (around the city) stay snow or change over to much sleet. That to me’s been decided. Might not mean much but some Places holding on longer down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Prue11 said: Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know This isn’t only a safe space for snow addicts, it’s a science discussion forum. The only posts that annoy me on AWX is stuff like this, IMHO has zero business here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 From what I’m seeing my call is still 6-10” for nyc/LI. 6” if sleet comes in earlier 8-10” if later. I believe we will all still a ferocious thump of heavy snow and with rates 1-2” possibly 3” an hour that can pile up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to. This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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