1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[housemtnTN]

Is the GFS still relied upon once these shorter range models come into play?

[McHenrySnow]

6 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Is the GFS still relied upon once these shorter range models come into play?

It's dangerous to rely on the GFS at any range. 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Gfs looks like mulit prog system again

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Is the GFS still relied upon once these shorter range models come into play?

It gets better once inside of 4 days....but has been jumping around all winter as we just witnessed yesterday.  I has some uncanny accuracy at times, but has just been really bad since about Thanksgiving in my book.  I can sometimes do a bit better in the mountains with snow amounts.  Like most weather models, it is best used within a blend of ideas or solutions.

[Mrwolf1972]

Cooler tho only up to possibly 33 at 84 not a whole lot of time above freezing if any in valley

[Scottie16]

Was taking a break for awhile but most local Mets within the last 10 minutes have said the snow line is going back south?


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[Mrwolf1972]

12 gfs 

[Tucker1027]

EPB in Chattanooga is calling in 86 additional crews


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[Mrwolf1972]

Gem keeps valley below freezing out to 72 the at 76 takes the low up the mountains and temps at 38 ice totals below

[Mrwolf1972]

All models ice swath seem to look the same. Only difference is where the low tracks thru middle under us or up the mountains. 

[Tucker1027]

Looks like it’s time to prepare for an ice storm in Chattanooga


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[Mrwolf1972]

Looks like light snow the 12 hrs freezing rain then rain then flash freeze. 

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For sure.  You can see where the cold is banking up against the Plateau on the east side of the Valley.  @Daniel Boone, that is your country.  With all three short range models cooling off...could be a problem. The HH hunter Twitter poster noted it might take several runs for data to impact things.  I also think Fountain made a good point...CAD highs on modeling tend to strengthen as they get closer to events and models can better depict the surface.  I do think that "might" be happening on our side of the Apps as well.  I need to dig a bit more...but the warm nose looked less intense across modeling or maybe just less durations.  I also wonder if the vortices and air masses are getting better sampled as they get closer.

Yeah, it is actually making me sick at my Stomach. Electric will surely be out for quite some time if that's realized barring a Miracle. 

[dwagner88]

I'm getting pretty nervous about the CAD bubble over the Chattanooga metro. It's obvious on the Canadian, the GFS and the NAM. Completely absent on the Euro. The really difficult thing is forecasting actual temps. The CAD bubble may keep us at 31, but that's likely not cold enough to allow for accretion with heavy precip rates.

[GBOVolz]

So for Knoxville, the GFS has a couple of inches of snow and 1/2” to 3/4” of ice. Total QPF is 2.6”. So 1.5 to 1.75 of true liquid falls after the frozen stuff and most of that is 1/2 of the event. I’m not seeing issues with the roads after 10 AM on Sunday. Then black ice becomes an issue overnight Sunday into Monday.


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[Weatheriscool]

I would think that NWS in Memphis and Nashville would be hoisting the Winter Storm Warnings soon

[zippity]

51 minutes ago, Vol Man said:

I do remember the horrible ice storm that hit Knoxville my senior year at UT...1982...and I believe it was early February. Also, seem to remember it was bad in Kingsport too. It was quite the sight to see Cumberland Avenue become an ice rink.

I was a sophomore at UT in 1982. My sorority had a meeting; the temperature was mildish when we went in, and we walked out to ice covering everything. We were all in skirts and heels, and we basically skated back to the dorms. Seems like there was a lot of snow that winter. I looked it up and the ice storm occurred on January 18, 1982.

[GBOVolz]

I'm getting pretty nervous about the CAD bubble over the Chattanooga metro. It's obvious on the Canadian, the GFS and the NAM. Completely absent on the Euro. The really difficult thing is forecasting actual temps. The CAD bubble may keep us at 31, but that's likely not cold enough to allow for accretion with heavy precip rates.

I agree with you. I think temperatures above 29° will not cause a problem on the road considering precipitation rates and standing water.


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[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

So for Knoxville, the GFS has a couple of inches of snow and 1/2” to 3/4” of ice. Total QPF is 2.6”. So 1.5 to 1.75 of true liquid falls after the frozen stuff and most of that is 3/4 of the event. I’m not seeing issues with the roads after 10 AM on Sunday. Then black ice becomes an issue overnight Sunday into Monday.


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I'm seeing single digit lows for Monday morning.

[GBOVolz]

I'm seeing single digit lows for Monday morning.

Yeah, Monday morning is gonna be pretty bad. Hopefully the cold air in the wind will help dry some of it up, but it’s not gonna get all of it.


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[housemtnTN]

3 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Yeah, Monday morning is gonna be pretty bad. Hopefully the cold air in the wind will help dry some of it up, but it’s not gonna get all of it.


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I was really hoping to spend Monday morning staring at heaps of snow and work called off for a week, not navigating through slick spots on the way to work lol.

[Mrwolf1972]

Ukie takes low from plateau to tri cities after 12 plus hrs freezing rain

 

Hammers Ohio with foot plus snow

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NBM 15z. Higher Ice for some (mainly west), lower for others (east) as compared to 12z. 

[Mrwolf1972]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NBM 15z. Higher Ice for some (mainly west), lower for others (east) as compared to 12z. 

Whats with the hole in the valley all the 12z models have valley up to half inch of ice. 

[GBOVolz]

I was really hoping to spend Monday morning staring at heaps of snow and work called off for a week, not navigating through slick spots on the way to work lol.

lol… you sound like you work for a school system, because I had the same image in my mind.


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[GBOVolz]

Whats with the hole in the valley all the 12z models have valley up to half inch of ice. 

Mods are probably starting to pick up on downsloping


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[*Flash*]

55 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

It's dangerous to rely on the GFS at any range. 

 

Remember what Carver said yesterday. Be nice...

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Ukie takes low from plateau to tri cities after 12 plus hrs freezing rain

 

Hammers Ohio with foot plus snow

It'll probably shoot up the Great Valley then may transfer East or start weakening and drift east.  Strong HP may keep it from a strong transfer to the Coast.

[Tucker1027]

I have a feeling this thing is going to throw us some curve balls in the next 24/36 hours. 

 

 

[John1122]

The GFS won't back off me getting 8-12 inches of snow and MRX must love it because they keep saying Kentucky border counties are likely to stay mostly snow. Snow here did increase on every model compared to last night, so far at 12z.