1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Tucker1027]

Have a NWS briefing for work at 2pm... going to be interesting. 

Ukie dropping 3 inches of precipitation is crazy. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Let is know what they say (or as much as you can), if you are allowed @Tucker1027

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Ukie:

Uggh !

[Scottie16]

Can anyone help me understand - I really use this forum to follow along with everything but most of yall are in different places than me. 
 
I’m in Clarksville, so pretty much right on the KY border, north of Nashville. 
 
Is it looking like sleet/freezing rain for me as well, or I’m still in snow currently?

Currently, snow. Things are evolving quick tho.


.

[Tucker1027]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Let is know what they say (or as much as you can), if you are allowed @Tucker1027

I will report back... 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

I will report back... 

Thankee 

[Scottie16]

Have a NWS briefing for work at 2pm... going to be interesting. 
Ukie dropping 3 inches of precipitation is crazy. 

Tucker we are gonna need some of them nugs


.

[Scottie16]

The one thing that I find absolutely amazing.  All the (supposed) modeling improvements seen in the recent past, combined with AI being utilized in its infancy............... and there were models that nailed the blizzard of 1993 from 5 days out.  That was 33 years ago!

So what you’re saying issssss there’s still a chance


.

[Daniel Boone]

There is a way around the main LP causing a turnover to rain all the eay up the west side of Apps. An LP forming East or SE of us and intensifying. Not highly likely but a possibility.

[Scottie16]

Ukie convection. More of that please! We just need a severe outlook to go with everything. 
I kid of course. If the Euro starts doing things like that this will get more complicated. My guess is models are trying to figure out the two waves. Stay the course, which is unfortunately icy awful.

As I get older Jeff the more I love dad jokes and that one made my day! I needed it. Thanks man!


.

[Tucker1027]

North Georgia Winter Storm Watch:

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations greater than one quarter inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Georgia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travelSaturday and Sunday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

met on southwernwx is saying the euro and euro aifs are delayed...

[bearman]

19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The one thing that I find absolutely amazing.  All the (supposed) modeling improvements seen in the recent past, combined with AI being utilized in its infancy............... and there were models that nailed the blizzard of 1993 from 5 days out.  That was 33 years ago!

Maybe I am wrong, but It seems that forecasts were more accurate/nuanced  back then.  Maybe not, but I wonder if reliance on tech has made people less likely to analyze all the possibilities, maybe even the hesitancy of even considering certain patterns because they are too much in the contrarian camp. The dependency of relying on AI and computer modeling I think causes us to lose aspects of human intuition. 

[Hillbilly]

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

[Icy Hot]

LOL - they just posted a Winter Strom Watch as well. Great timing!

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Hillbilly said:

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

I say this kinda in jest, kinda not....    I'm sure they've seen the runs that send a low into east TN bringing thunderstorms.  They are probably like............ "I just don't want to right now".   

[Icy Hot]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1227 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-220700-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest
Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-
Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Mountain City, Cades Cove,
Bullet Creek, Arthur, Unicoi, Lenoir City, Lake Forest,
Chattanooga, Palio, Maynardville, Benton, Castlewood, Clairfield,
Erwin, White Oak, Harriman, Sneedville, Old Washington,
Huntsville, Pigeon Forge, Rockwood, Violet, Luttrell, Haletown
(Guild), Kingston, South Holston Dam, Oneida, Strawberry Plains,
White Pine, Archville, Old Cumberland, Big South Fork National,
Topton, Cedar Creek, Bybee, Mount Crest, Big Frog Mountain,
Jellico, Fincastle, Kyles Ford, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Big
Spring, Maryville, Mooresburg, Unaka, Limestone Cove, Big Stone
Gap, Lone Mountain, Lebanon, Newport, Evensville, Conasauga,
Norton, Wise, Powells Crossroads, Bristol VA, La Follette,
Elkmont, Bradbury, Russellville, Chestnut Hill, Clinton, Athens,
Coker Creek, Martin Springs, Bristol TN, Cagle, Laurel Bloomery,
Gatlinburg, Madisonville, Seymour, Signal Mountain, Eagle
Furnace, Oliver Springs, Rose Hill, Norma, Monteagle, Pardee,
High Point, Hiltons, Rosedale, Evanston, Jefferson City,
Kingsport, Brayton, Parksville, Lone Oak, Sweetwater, Alpha,
Andrews, Kodak, Neva, Marble, Abingdon, Oak Ridge, Norris Lake,
Greeneville, Lookout Mountain, Elizabethton, Appalachia,
Pikeville, South Pittsburg, Hartford, Happy Valley, Slick Rock,
Tusquitee, Dentville, Pine Orchard, Knoxville, Hiawasse Dam,
Shooting Creek, Treadway, Reliance, Doeville, Tasso, Springdale,
Fairview, Morristown, Benhams, Loudon, Bearden, McMahan, Melvine,
Honaker, Petros, Whitwell, Sevierville, Johnson City, Cartwright,
Brasstown, Grandview, Harrisburg, Harrogate-Shawanee, Dye,
Turtletown, Murphy, Hansonville, Shady Valley, Dandridge,
Paulette, Ducktown, Howard Quarter, Dayton, Jasper, Sharps
Chapel, Sandlick, Alcoa, Elk Valley, Clear Water, Royal Blue,
Spring City, Coeburn, Etowah, Dunlap, Caryville, Trade, Citico,
Hayesville, Bean Station, and Hampton
1227 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 /1127 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 10 inches will be possible, primarily
  north of Knoxville with the heaviest accumulations near the
  Kentucky border and far western Virginia. In addition to the snow,
  ice accumulations up to one half of an inch will be possible,
  primarily south of Knoxville. The greatest ice accumulations will
  likely be south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains,
  especially the southern Cumberland Plateau.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
  Travel could be impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details
  regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain
  totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the
  coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts.

[Scottie16]

Current observations over Alaska


.

[Tucker1027]

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 10 inches will be possible, primarily north of Knoxville with the heaviest accumulations near the Kentucky border and far western Virginia. In addition to the snow,
ice accumulations up to one half of an inch will be possible, primarily south of Knoxville. The greatest ice accumulations will likely be south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains, especially the southern Cumberland Plateau.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the
coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.


.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Icy Hot said:

LOL - they just posted a Winter Strom Watch as well. Great timing!

Prudent,  if for no other reason than the ZR possibilities.

[GBOVolz]

I’m surprised MRX has not given up on this yet. Not because of the winter storm watch, but because they are still thinking a significant amount of snow. They must still believe either. This is not going to go as far north, as some of the models are saying or the dynamics of the system could potentially keep it for snow longer.


.

[monadnocks]

6 minutes ago, Hillbilly said:

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

I've got a FIL in Morristown's area and it's just not great for him. He lives at the end of the road, up a steep hill with some portion paved. Trying to estimate how much snow and/or ice and get him the info has been a challenge, If anyone has suggestions for me to pass along, I'd be very grateful.

[GBOVolz]

So the euro is on delay. Maybe they found something that’s been causing problems.


.

[Hillbilly]

This disclaimer almost feels like an understatement >>>

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details
  regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain
  totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the
  coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts.

[BuCoVaWx]

Charleston going with this. I believe it's going to change between now and Saturday. 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY

MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and

  12 inches possible. Locally higher amounts are possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest

  Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern,

  and western West Virginia.

 

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday morning.

[jaxjagman]

Would be some all time record lows possibly in some places

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

So the euro is on delay. Maybe they found something that’s been causing problems.


.

That'd be nice!

 

 

 

@BuCoVaWx I'd day you are one of the best placed of all of us in the eastern forum areas. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Hillbilly said:

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

WSW posted now for all of Tennessee.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

Euro looks to be cooler.. 

excellent, it has started! 

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I’m surprised MRX has not given up on this yet. Not because of the winter storm watch, but because they are still thinking a significant amount of snow. They must still believe either. This is not going to go as far north, as some of the models are saying or the dynamics of the system could potentially keep it for snow longer.


.

JMO, but it's probably easier to introduce the possibility of half snow, half ZR/sleet than go all the way to a full on ice storm changing to rain.  There's still plenty of time and allows them the room to move fully that way in a later update.