1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Vol4Life]

18z GFS…HP looks a tad stronger at 60

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

 

No...lol

I figured. It would just be cool to tell my kids there was a time when OHX had the testicular fortitide to mark us in an 'Extreme' category. Thank goodness MEG and MRX have that.

[TellicoWx]

AI GFS would bury the state just looking at 850s and surface temps 

[Reb]

GFS coming in much more robust. 

[John1122]

The GFS picked up more Baja wave. 

[Vol4Life]

The HP is showing up big on this run.  1048 at 87 sitting on Minnesota/Iowa border

[John1122]

The window is currently very narrow now. The UKIE is the northern most, the GFS, still the southern most, even with this 18z run. 

[Reb]

3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

The HP is showing up big on this run.  1048 at 87 sitting on Minnesota/Iowa border

Perhaps more friction with the ejecting baja low would help us out here. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Looks like gfs will be a great run. More snow less mix

[Wurbus]

GFS is going to rival its 06z run it looks like

[Reb]

This will be a monster run, but I do not trust the GFS on picking up WAA in the valley whatsoever.

[tnweathernut]

FWIW, the 18z AI GFS does take the far southern and southeastern areas of TN above freezing for a few hours at 700mb.  Other than this small area, it looks like it's a snow smoke show.

[tnweathernut]

18z GFS, along with some other modeling is showing a bit quicker onset (by a few hours) vs. modeling the last 24 hours.  I think modeling slowed the onset for a few runs and is now sensing overrunning and a quicker onset, typical of setups like this.

[John1122]

The GFS may go for 3 feet. 

[Scottie16]

The GFS may go for 3 feet. 

May go over 4!


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[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Reb said:

This will be a monster run, but I do not trust the GFS on picking up WAA in the valley whatsoever.

Yeah, it's a definite major snow for most of the state.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I've noticed recently (and someone may have beat me to it in this thread) is that as the initial arctic high slides east and bananas out, another stout one is sliding in to supplement. 

[Mrwolf1972]

I'm cashing out 

[tnweathernut]

Who knows where this goes in the next 2-3 days (speaking of trends), but I can appreciate the models for showing something major from several days ago and sticking with it.  It never plays out exactly as modeled, but there wasn't this (lose it in day 5/6) we sometimes see.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Since I've already got imgur pulled up, here y'all go:

 

[John1122]

Well, I'd talked about going to Mammoth, but it's coming to me. 

[brewman22001]

I'm cashing out 

Yep I’ll take it and be absolutely euphoric!! Gonna make a igloo lol


.

[Scottie16]

makes up for today!


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[tnweathernut]

Just now, brewman22001 said:

Yep I’ll take it and be absolutely euphoric!! Gonna make a igloo lol


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You'd be euphoric right up until the point you lost power for 3 weeks.  lol

[TellicoWx]

Didn't think would ever see 6z again...boy was i wrong. Now imagine if NAM got ahold of that a did it's namming lol

[Wurbus]

I never thought goofy would top the 06z run but here we are. Check please!

[John1122]

Only 40 inches in parts of Sevier co that run.

[John1122]

I think the AI GFS fed the GFS the DGEX as part of its takeover. 

[John1122]

I never imagined getting 24 inches of snow modeled and being on the low end of accumulation in the area. 

[housemtnTN]

If anyone uses kerosene as a backup heat source, it's selling out fast in my area.