1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

That was February 21, 2015. We had 1-2" of ice in Crossville. Most areas around us (outside the plateau) actually got mostly snow I think.

That was an I-40 special. Knoxville also had around 1 inch of ice from it. It was snow and sleet here, we had about 6 or 7 inches combined. Southern Kentucky has 12+ inches of snow. 

[Weatheriscool]

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

And northern Middle TN as well. The southern adjustment gives me some added confidence. 

Yes, this should be interesting! 

[Carvers Gap]

I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week.  I should have known we were in trouble then.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week.  I should have known we were in trouble then.  

I was hesitant to mention it, but there were also sightings of the elk this fall at an even lower elevation than the last time we saw it nearby. I myself did not see it, so I’m not sure if it counts. 

[John1122]

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was hesitant to mention it, but there were also sightings of the elk this fall at an even lower elevation than the last time we saw it nearby. I myself did not see it, so I’m not sure if it counts. 

Well, evidently the Scooters groundhog has some kind of Puxatony Phil powers.   Didn't seem overly scared of his shadow, but maybe that is what happens when good folks slip you a cake bite now and then - got to stay visible.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the para CMC jumped about 200 miles south with its snow line since 0z. 40 north now instead of central KY 

[GBOVolz]

Decent agreement now.  I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment.  It did at 0z regarding E TN.

Are you allowed to share this?


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[GBOVolz]

Looks like the para CMC jumped about 200 miles south with its snow line since 0z. 40 north now instead of central KY 

Would love to see this also if allowed


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Would love to see this also if allowed


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As far as I know I can share:

12z para CMC:

 

12z on the right -------> 0z on the left:

[TellicoWx]

And it begins..WSW up now TX, AR, LA

[*Flash*]

[Wurbus]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
  Appalachian region Saturday into Sunday is increasing. However,
  it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
  precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain
  unclear. This weekend`s system should be monitored closely over
  the next couple of days.

- Cold air behind this weekend`s storm will keep temperatures
  at/below freezing for at least a day or two. This will prolong
  the effects of any winter weather, with power outages possible
  as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Confidence continues to increase with regards to the potential for
a high impact winter weather event affecting the southeast United
States this weekend. As such, I`ll devote nearly the entirety of
the forecast discussion to that event.

Strong, deep troughing will remain over much of the central and
eastern CONUS over the next several days, with quasi-zonal flow
in place across the Gulf coast. One impulse embedded in the upper
trough will drag a cold front into the region Wed night into Thu
with some light rain expected across the forecast area. Afterwards
a strong +1050mb surface high will drop out of Canada into the
northern plains on Friday, reinforcing the front across the region
and leading to some additional light precip on Friday possibly.
However the main show is Saturday into Sunday. A very strong jet
over the Ohio valley into the northeast, coupled with an upper low
ejecting east from southern California, will result in widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation across Tennessee and the
surrounding areas. Timing wise, models agree fairly well on the
bulk of the precipitation starting around daybreak Saturday and
continuing through Sunday morning before tapering off Sun
afternoon. Where there is still significant disagreement, revolves
around precip types and amounts. Some guidance indicates a warm
nose pushing north to the I-40 corridor while other guidance keeps
it south of the Tennessee/Georgia border. The former would support
significant icing in the south while central and northern areas
get a significant snowfall event. The latter would support snow
everywhere, with lighter totals further north and heavier amounts
along and slightly south of the I-40 corridor. At this point in
time, it`s difficult to tell which scenario is more likely to play
out. What is pretty clear though is that a highly impactful winter
weather event seems set to play out across the southern
Appalachian region Sat and Sun.

Regarding totals and precip types, it is worth noting that PWAT
values for this event are well above climatological averages.
That`s significant since it`s more likely to see unseasonably high
PWATs in warm, heavy rain events versus cold winter weather
events. Given the thermal profiles snow ratios aren`t going to be
crazy high, so I would expect the snow to be a heavier/wetter
type. This coupled with the potential of some icing somewhere
means that power outages will be a distinct possibility.

Lastly, whatever falls on Sat/Sun isn`t going anywhere in quick
fashion. Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday are going to be
quite cold and I undercut NBM guidance a bit on Sun/Mon to account
for temperatures being impacted by whatever snowpack is present.

[Scottie16]

Guys don’t give up yet we know there would be wobbles and we are at the range where storms get lost and that’s not wishcasting.


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[Reb]

16 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Guys don’t give up yet we know there would be wobbles and we are at the range where storms get lost and that’s not wishcasting.


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While true, the threat for ice for the southern half of Tennessee, especially East Tennessee is very real and trends have not been our friend today. 

Here's to 18z falling back in line 

[AMZ8990]

[AMZ8990]

[AMZ8990]

[AMZ8990]

[AMZ8990]

[*Flash*]

5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Is there one of these for Middle yet? 

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

Is there one of these for Middle yet? 

[John1122]

18z NBM

 

[jaxjagman]

 

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Is there one of these for Middle yet? 

No...lol

[Weatheriscool]

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Is there one of these for Middle yet? 

Nope

[John1122]

NBM for Freezing Rain. They don't issue a sleet one that I know of. 

 

[brewman22001]

Guys don’t give up yet we know there would be wobbles and we are at the range where storms get lost and that’s not wishcasting.


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It seems like we often lose a system before it gets here and then it comes back around. From what I’ve seen this happens often with the modeling. I’m gonna remain very optimistic and hope for a very snowy weekend.


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[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Oh they changed that

[GBOVolz]

While true, the threat for ice for the southern half of Tennessee, especially East Tennessee is very real and trends have not been our friend today. 
Here's to 18z falling back in line 

This feels like January 2024 all over again except totals may be much higher this time


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[Tucker1027]

 

 

 

umm NAM drops this on Friday